L. David Roper, http://www.roperld.com/personal/roperldavid.htm
21-Feb-2017
Consider two cars that have the same 5-years lease cost and travel the same 75,000 miles in 5 years, one a BEV (Battery-Electric-Vehicle) and one an ICE (Internal-Combustion-Engine car). Do not subtract federal, state and local tax credits from the cost of the BEV. The purpose of this web page is to compare the cost of leasing these two cars under specific reasonable assumptions. It is assumed that insurance costs are the same for both cars.
The Chevrolet Bolt EV is a good example for a BEV. It has a 60-kWh battery, a range of >200 miles and an MSRP of $35,000 and up, not accounting for tax credits
Without accounting for the cost to repair the damage done to the environment and maintenance cost, the difference in cost for the BEV and the ICE cars is:
(ICE cost) - (BEV cost) = $7,500 - $2,960 = $4,540
Assume that the 75,000 miles is accumulated over 5 years at 15,000-miles/year.
These costs do not include tires. Assume that tires' cost will be the same for both.
Thus, the total costs are:
Without accounting for the cost to repair the damage done to the environment, the difference in cost for the BEV and the ICE cars is:
(ICE cost) - (BEV cost) = $9,500 - $3,460 = $6,040
A BEV using renewable energy for fuel emitts no carbon-dioxide. However, usually more carbon-dioxide is emitted manufacturing a BEV than for an ICE. Assume that a BEV must be driven 15,000 miles before that difference is accounted for. Then the carbon-dioxide emissions for the ICE should only be calculated for 60,000 - 15,000 = 45,000 miles. At 30 miles/gallon, this corresponds to 1,500 gallons.
Of course, if the electricity for the BEV is not supplied by renewable energy, the BEV will also have a carbon-dioxide-mitigation cost.
Burning gasoline emitts 19.64 lbs carbon-dioxide per gallon. (Diesel emitts 22.38 lbs per gallon.)
The question is what will it cost to repair the damage done by global warming and what discount rate should be used. A recent detailed study of social cost of global warming calculates the reparation cost at $220/ton of carbon dioxide emitted.
For the ICE: 1,500 gal. x 19.64 lbs/gal. / 2000 lbs/ton = ~14.7 tons carbon dioxide emitted.
Without using a discount rate, the reparation cost for the ICE is ~14.7 tons x $220/ton = ~$3,200
Assume that the discount period is 100 years and the discount rate is 4%: then the reparation cost for 5 years is ~$650
The total difference in cost for the BEV and the ICE cars for 5 years is:
(ICE cost) - (BEV cost) = ($9,500 + $650) - $3,460 = $6,690
BEV large traction batteries lose capacity with use. Assume that the capacity loss is 0.035% per charging cycle.
For calculational purposes:
Then, after 5 years, or 260 charging cycles, the battery will have lost 260*0.035% = ~9% of its original capacity.
This corresponds to an original 200-miles range being reduced to 0.91*200 miles = ~182 miles in 5 years.
Would the lessee of the BEV want to replace the battery before the 5-year lease expires? My guess in "No". If the answer is "Yes", then what would the battery cost to replace? The 2015 Nissan LEAF's battery replacement cost is ~$6,000. Assume that would be cost for the battery replacement. Then the difference in cost for the BEV and the ICE cars for 5 years is:
(ICE cost) - (BEV cost) = ($12,600 + $650) - ($3,700 + $6,000)= $3,550