North Atlantic Oscillation and Global Warming

L. David Roperhttp://www.roperld.com/personal/roperldavid.htm
6 April, 2016

Introduction

The North Atlantic Oscillation Index is a measure of the difference in atmospheric pressure between the high pressure over the Azores and the low pressure over Iceland.

High Index: Higher than normal high atmospheric pressure over the Azores and a lower than normal low atmospheric pressure over Iceland:

Low Index: Lower than normal high atmospheric pressure over the Azores and a higher than normal low atmospheric pressure over Iceland:

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/

This article examines whether there is a relationship between the NAO and global warming, i.e., increasing average Earth temperature. The answer is No.

Data

Data for the average Earth temperature and the NAO are readily availble. The following graph show them on separate Y axes and linear-trend fits to them:

Analysis of the Data

The correlation coefficient between the temperature and the ONI is 0.066, essentially no correlation. Up until 1990 the correlation is 0.23.

Conclusion

It appears unlikely that the NOA is caused by global warming.

References

L. David Roper interdisciplinary studies
Roper Global Warming

L. David Roper, http://www.roperld.com/personal/roperldavid.htm
6 April, 2016

c:/science/oceans/ONI_NAO.xlsx