Bush Iraq War Score Card

L. David Roper (roperld@vt.edu)

Here are some items to use to keep score on the 2003-? Iraq War of George W. Bush:

• Casualties of Iraqi citizens must be low. See http://www.iraqbodycount.net and http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/bodycount.csv. (Some have questioned the method of analysis used in this work, but I have seen nothing which attempts a better method of analysis.) See graphs below.
• Casualties of US soldiers must be low. See http://www.brook.edu/views/op-ed/ohanlon/20020925.htm and http://icasualties.org/oif/. Causulties remained high for several years. See graphs below.
• US must find some sequestered weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that were not declared before or during the recent UN inspections. See http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_221875,0005.htm and http://www.themoderntribune.com/iraq_proof_of_weapon_of_mass_destruction_wmd.htm and http://www.therant.info/archives/000334.html. No WMDs were ever found.
• Iraq's cultural antiquities must be left unharmed. Many were stolen.
• Iraq's natural resources must be left unharmed. They were badly damaged.
• Saddam Hussein must be found and deposed from power. See: http://wwjtv.com/rooney/sixtyminutes_story_082221819.html. He finally was.

For an account of the number of civilians (15,000-17,000) killed in the Afghanistan War in (Oct 2001-) see http://pubpages.unh.edu/~mwherold/AfghanDailyCount.pdf. (Some have questioned the method of analysis used in this work, but I have seen nothing which attempts a better method of analysis.)

Accumlated U.S. troops killed and wounded in the Bush Iraq War. Also shown is a double-hyperbolic-tangent fit to the data representing the two surges of the Bush Iraq War.

The question that must be asked: How many more "surges" will there be in the Bush Iraq War? The first two surges each had about 2300 U.S. deaths and 15,000 U.S. wounded.

Ratio of (Iraqis killed)/(US soldiers killed) in first 4 months of the Bush Iraq War. Data from http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/bodycount.csv for Iraqis killed. (Some of the data entries include more than one month; they were counted as occurring in the first month listed.):

"Shock and Awe" was more than fireworks and buildings destroyed; over 7300 Iraqis were killed in the first two months of the Bush Iraq War.

Iraqis killed and US soldiers killed after April 2003 of the Bush Iraq War and a trendline for the Iraqis killed. Data from http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/bodycount.csv for Iraqis killed. (Some of the data entries include more than one month; they were counted as occurring in the first month listed.):

Ratio of (Iraqis killed)/(US soldiers killed) after April 2003 of the Bush Iraq War and a trendline. Data from http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/bodycount.csv for Iraqis killed. (Some of the data entries include more than one month; they were counted as occurring in the first month listed.):

The Iraqis and U.S. soldiers killed data indicate that the either the Bush Iraq War is winding down or the Iraqi insurgency has increased its ability to kill U.S. soldiers compared to the U.S.'s ability to kill Iraqis. If the Bush War were truly winding down, the ratio of Iraqis killed to U.S. soldiers killed should approach a constant. The ratio is very erratic, so no conclusion can be drawn yet.

Of course, eventually the data curves have to approximate a hyperbolic tangent, as the Bush Iraq War winds down.

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