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The child-abuse rate (number of reported children per 1000 children over 18 years of age) varies greatly among the states in the United States. (See table at end for 1996 rates.)
An interesting question to ask is: Is there any correlation between the child-abuse rate and the strength of the two political parties in the states?
I compared different state's child-abuse-rate (CAR) data for 1996 with the results of the 1996 presidential election for each state. (See table at end for votes in the 1996 election.) A correlation calculation yielded the following:
| Correlation | Rate |
| Democrat vote | -0.205 |
| Republican vote | +0.140 |
That is, the Democratic votes for the states had a 21% negative correlation with increasing CAR and the Republican votes had a 14% positive correlation. States with high child-abuse death rate vote much more Republican than Democratic and vice versa.
|
| This is a plot of the child-abuse rate (CAR) sorted by rank of the states compared to the Democratic votes and the Republican votes. (See table at end for the data.) Also shown are linear fits to the two votes. This shows visually the positive correlation of CAR with the Republican vote and the negative correlation of CAR with the Democratic vote. Note that the four lowest CAR states are definitely Democratic and the highest two states are definitely Republican. |
What can one conclude from these results? Whatever factors cause the large disparity for child-abuse rates between the various states also cause those states to tend to vote Republican. I believe that the main factors are:
My Republican native state, Oklahoma (rate=46.5), ranked 30 of 50 and my Republican adopted state, Virginia (rate=32.6), ranked 9 of 50 for increasing child-abuse rate in 1996.
| U.S. Child Abuse 1996 | 1996 election | |||||
| State | Children in Reports | Children under 18 | Ratio Reported/1000 | Democrat | Republican | Rank |
| Pennsylvania | 23666 | 2894676 | 8.2 | 49.2% | 40.0% | 1 |
| Vermont | 2561 | 146648 | 17.5 | 53.4% | 31.1% | 2 |
| Hawaii | 5384 | 306523 | 17.6 | 56.9% | 31.6% | 3 |
| Minnesota | 25435 | 1247008 | 20.4 | 51.1% | 35.0% | 4 |
| Tennessee | 34293 | 1322161 | 25.9 | 48.0% | 45.6% | 5 |
| Texas | 151261 | 5452277 | 27.7 | 43.8% | 48.8% | 6 |
| New Hampshire | 8337 | 295866 | 28.2 | 49.6% | 39.6% | 7 |
| Maine | 9616 | 299519 | 32.1 | 51.6% | 30.8% | 8 |
| Virginia | 53271 | 1631836 | 32.6 | 45.1% | 47.1% | 9 |
| Washington | 47631 | 1436804 | 33.2 | 49.8% | 37.3% | 10 |
| Wisconsin | 45479 | 1343034 | 33.9 | 48.8% | 38.5% | 11 |
| New Jersey | 67817 | 1986972 | 34.1 | 53.7% | 35.9% | 12 |
| Alabama | 39361 | 1076436 | 36.6 | 43.2% | 50.1% | 13 |
| Utah | 24857 | 678803 | 36.6 | 33.3% | 54.4% | 14 |
| Louisiana | 45981 | 1233455 | 37.3 | 52.0% | 39.9% | 15 |
| Maryland | 48160 | 1286190 | 37.4 | 54.3% | 38.3% | 16 |
| Nebraska | 16749 | 442186 | 37.9 | 35.0% | 53.7% | 17 |
| Mississippi | 29179 | 756134 | 38.6 | 44.1% | 49.2% | 18 |
| Illinois | 124129 | 3155905 | 39.3 | 54.3% | 36.8% | 19 |
| Arizona | 46716 | 1150186 | 40.6 | 46.5% | 44.3% | 20 |
| South Carolina | 39063 | 937765 | 41.7 | 44.0% | 49.8% | 21 |
| Massachusetts | 60199 | 1421929 | 42.3 | 61.5% | 28.1% | 22 |
| North Dakota | 7292 | 168643 | 43.2 | 40.1% | 46.9% | 23 |
| Indiana | 66097 | 1498524 | 44.1 | 41.6% | 47.1% | 24 |
| South Dakota | 9051 | 204156 | 44.3 | 43.0% | 46.5% | 25 |
| Kansas | 30552 | 687314 | 44.5 | 36.1% | 54.3% | 26 |
| Georgia | 87006 | 1952456 | 44.6 | 45.8% | 47.0% | 27 |
| Iowa | 32801 | 719339 | 45.6 | 50.3% | 39.9% | 28 |
| Wyoming | 6154 | 133275 | 46.2 | 36.8% | 49.8% | 29 |
| Oklahoma | 40916 | 880796 | 46.5 | 40.4% | 48.3% | 30 |
| Oregon | 39486 | 808406 | 48.8 | 47.2% | 39.1% | 31 |
| Colorado | 49867 | 997938 | 50.0 | 44.4% | 45.8% | 32 |
| New York | 236241 | 4540534 | 52.0 | 58.3% | 30.0% | 33 |
| California | 463072 | 8866413 | 52.2 | 51.1% | 38.2% | 34 |
| Nevada | 21838 | 416750 | 52.4 | 43.9% | 42.9% | 35 |
| Florida | 184442 | 3423067 | 53.9 | 48.0% | 42.3% | 36 |
| Ohio | 154202 | 2847841 | 54.1 | 47.4% | 41.0% | 37 |
| Alaska | 10100 | 184387 | 54.8 | 33.3% | 50.8% | 38 |
| Delaware | 9751 | 176015 | 55.4 | 51.8% | 36.6% | 39 |
| North Carolina | 102168 | 1833617 | 55.7 | 44.0% | 48.7% | 40 |
| Michigan | 142700 | 2537014 | 56.2 | 51.7% | 38.5% | 41 |
| New Mexico | 28661 | 501233 | 57.2 | 49.2% | 41.9% | 42 |
| Arkansas | 38211 | 659448 | 57.9 | 53.7% | 36.8% | 43 |
| Missouri | 83875 | 1394199 | 60.2 | 47.5% | 41.2% | 44 |
| Rhode Island | 14160 | 235283 | 60.2 | 59.7% | 26.8% | 45 |
| Connecticut | 49344 | 797950 | 61.8 | 52.8% | 34.7% | 46 |
| West Virginia | 26478 | 421933 | 62.8 | 51.5% | 36.8% | 47 |
| Kentucky | 60896 | 968660 | 62.9 | 45.8% | 44.9% | 48 |
| Montana | 17732 | 232751 | 76.2 | 41.3% | 44.1% | 49 |
| Idaho | 32496 | 348509 | 93.2 | 33.6% | 52.2% | 50 |
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