U.S. Federal Debt and Political Parties

L. David Roper (roperld@vt.edu)

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This shows the U.S. Federal % debt/GDP versus time for years 1900-1999 compared to presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition). Note the huge unprecedented peace-time rise during the Reagan/Bush administrations. Undoubtedly this was due to the huge tax cuts and increases in defense spending without correspondingly reducing federal expenditures in other areas. Although the federal debt continued to rise during the Clinton administration at a slower rate than during the Reagan/Bush administrations, the % debt/GDP decreased.
This shows the U.S. Federal Debt versus time for years 71868-1952 compared to presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition). Note the large rise during World War II and a smaller rise during War World I.
This shows the change in U.S. Federal Debt from year to year for the years 1901-1928 compared to presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition). Of course, the large increase in the change is during WW I.
This shows the change in U.S. Federal Debt from year to year for the years 1929-1968 compared to presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition). Of course, the large increase in the change is during WW II. Increases in the change are also obvious for the Korean and Vietnam Wars.
This shows the change in federal % Debt/GDP from year to year for the years 1969-1999 compared to presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition). The huge increases in the change during the Reagan-Bush administration is unprecented for peace time. Undoubtedly this was due to the huge tax cuts without correspondingly reducing federal expenditures. It is clear that Republican administrations have performed very poorly compared to Democratic administrations in reducing the increase in the federal debt.
This shows the average change in the federal debt for presidential administrations from Grant to Taft. Standard deviations are shown. Note the high for the McKinley Republican administration.
This shows the average change in the federal debt for presidential administrations from Wilson to Franklin Roosevelt. Standard deviations are shown. Note the highs during World War I (Wilson) and World War II (Roosevelt). The Wilson
This shows the average change in the federal % debt/GDP for presidential administrations from Truman to Clinton. Standard deviations are shown. Note the highs for the Reagan and Bush Republican administrations.
This shows the average change in the federal % debt/GDP for presidential administrations since Truman by political party. Standard deviations are shown, which are large.
This shows the average change in the federal % debt/GDP for Democrat control index. Standard deviations are shown, which are large. The lowest is for index 4 (Democratic president and Republican congress) and the highest is for total Republican control (index 0).

The correlation coefficients for Democratic control of the Senate, House and presidency with the % Debt/GDP change for administrations since Franklin Roosevelts' are:

Correlations % Debt/GDP Change
President Dem. -0.37
Democratic Control Index -0.24

Thus, Democratic administrations did much better than Republican administrations in not increasing the federal debt.

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The Democratic Control Index is defined as
  • 7=Democratic party has presidency and majorities in both the Senate and House.
  • 6=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the House.
  • 5=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the Senate.
  • 4=Democratic party has presidency only.
  • 3=Democratic party has majority in the House and Senate, but not the presidency.
  • 2=Democratic party has majority in the House only and not the presidency.
  • 1=Democratic party has majority in the Senate only and not the presidency.
  • 0=Democratic party is in minority in both the Senate and the House and does not have the presidency.
A diagram showing the Democratic Party Control Index:
Democratic Control Democratic Party Control Index Republican Control
nothing 0 President, House & Senate
Senate 1 President & House
House 2 President & Senate
House & Senate 3 President
President 4 House & Senate
President & Senate 5 House
President & House 6 Senate
President, House & Senate 7 nothing

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These data are found at http://www.mbaonline.com/resources/public-debt/.

U.S. Federal Debt: Senate House President
Year Debt (billions $) % Debt Increase Dem. Rep. Senate D/R Dem. Rep. House D/R Dem. Rep. Year
1900 2.137 26 53 0.49 163 185 0.88 0 1 1900 McKinley
1901 2.143 0.28% 29 56 0.52 153 198 0.77 0 1 1901 RooseveltT
1902 2.159 0.75% 29 56 0.52 153 198 0.77 0 1 1902 RooseveltT
1903 2.202 1.99% 32 58 0.55 178 207 0.86 0 1 1903 RooseveltT
1904 2.264 2.82% 32 58 0.55 178 207 0.86 0 1 1904 RooseveltT
1905 2.275 0.49% 32 58 0.55 136 250 0.54 0 1 1905 RooseveltT
1906 2.337 2.73% 32 58 0.55 136 250 0.54 0 1 1906 RooseveltT
1907 2.457 5.13% 29 61 0.48 164 222 0.74 0 1 1907 RooseveltT
1908 2.627 6.92% 29 61 0.48 164 222 0.74 0 1 1908 RooseveltT
1909 2.64 0.49% 32 59 0.54 172 219 0.79 0 1 1909 Taft
1910 2.653 0.49% 32 59 0.54 172 219 0.79 0 1 1910 Taft
1911 2.766 4.26% 42 49 0.86 228 162 1.41 0 1 1911 Taft
1912 2.868 3.69% 42 49 0.86 228 162 1.41 0 1 1912 Taft
1913 2.916 1.67% 51 44 1.16 290 127 2.28 1 0 1913 Wilson
1914 2.912 -0.14% 51 44 1.16 290 127 2.28 1 0 1914 Wilson
1915 3.058 5.01% 56 39 1.44 231 193 1.20 1 0 1915 Wilson
1916 3.609 18.02% 56 39 1.44 231 193 1.20 1 0 1916 Wilson
1917 5.718 58.44% 53 42 1.26 210 216 0.97 1 0 1917 Wilson
1918 14.592 155.19% 53 42 1.26 210 216 0.97 1 0 1918 Wilson
1919 27.391 87.71% 47 48 0.98 191 237 0.81 1 0 1919 Wilson
1920 25.952 -5.25% 47 48 0.98 191 237 0.81 1 0 1920 Wilson
1921 23.977 -7.61% 37 59 0.63 132 300 0.44 0 1 1921 Harding
1922 22.963 -4.23% 37 59 0.63 132 300 0.44 0 1 1922 Harding
1923 22.35 -2.67% 43 51 0.84 207 225 0.92 0 1 1923 Harding/Coolidge
1924 21.251 -4.92% 43 51 0.84 207 225 0.92 0 1 1924 Coolidge
1925 20.516 -3.46% 40 54 0.74 183 247 0.74 0 1 1925 Coolidge
1926 19.643 -4.26% 40 54 0.74 183 247 0.74 0 1 1926 Coolidge
1927 18.512 -5.76% 47 48 0.98 195 237 0.82 0 1 1927 Coolidge
1928 17.604 -4.90% 47 48 0.98 195 237 0.82 0 0 1928 Coolidge
1929 16.931 -3.82% 39 56 0.70 163 267 0.61 0 1 1929 Hoover
1930 16.185 -4.41% 39 56 0.70 163 267 0.61 0 1 1930 Hoover
1931 16.801 3.81% 47 48 0.98 216 218 0.99 0 1 1931 Hoover
1932 19.487 15.99% 47 48 0.98 216 218 0.99 0 1 1932 Hoover
1933 22.539 15.66% 59 36 1.64 313 117 2.68 1 0 1933 RooseveltF
1934 27.053 20.03% 59 36 1.64 313 117 2.68 1 0 1934 RooseveltF
1935 28.701 6.09% 69 25 2.76 322 103 3.13 1 0 1935 RooseveltF
1936 33.779 17.69% 69 25 2.76 322 103 3.13 1 0 1936 RooseveltF
1937 36.425 7.83% 75 17 4.41 333 89 3.74 1 0 1937 RooseveltF
1938 37.165 2.03% 75 17 4.41 333 89 3.74 1 0 1938 RooseveltF
1939 40.44 8.81% 69 23 3.00 262 169 1.55 1 0 1939 RooseveltF
1940 42.968 6.25% 69 23 3.00 262 169 1.55 1 0 1940 RooseveltF
1941 48.961 13.95% 66 28 2.36 267 162 1.65 1 0 1941 RooseveltF
1942 72.422 47.92% 66 28 2.36 267 162 1.65 1 0 1942 RooseveltF
1943 136.969 89.13% 57 38 1.50 222 209 1.06 1 0 1943 RooseveltF
1944 201.003 46.75% 57 38 1.50 222 209 1.06 1 0 1944 RooseveltF
1945 258.682 28.70% 57 38 1.50 243 190 1.28 1 0 1945 RooseveltF/Truman
1946 269.422 4.15% 57 38 1.50 243 190 1.28 1 0 1946 Truman
1947 258.286 -4.13% 45 51 0.88 188 246 0.76 1 0 1947 Truman
1948 252.292 -2.32% 45 51 0.88 188 246 0.76 1 0 1948 Truman
1949 252.77 0.19% 54 42 1.29 263 171 1.54 1 0 1949 Truman
1950 257.357 1.81% 54 42 1.29 263 171 1.54 1 0 1950 Truman
1951 255.222 -0.83% 48 47 1.02 234 199 1.18 1 0 1951 Truman
1952 259.105 1.52% 48 47 1.02 234 199 1.18 1 0 1952 Truman
1953 266.071 2.69% 46 48 0.96 213 221 0.96 0 1 1953 Eisenhower
1954 278.75 4.77% 46 48 0.96 213 221 0.96 0 1 1954 Eisenhower
1955 280.769 0.72% 48 47 1.02 232 203 1.14 0 1 1955 Eisenhower
1956 276.628 -1.47% 48 47 1.02 232 203 1.14 0 1 1956 Eisenhower
1957 274.898 -0.63% 49 47 1.04 234 201 1.16 0 1 1957 Eisenhower
1958 282.922 2.92% 49 47 1.04 234 201 1.16 0 1 1958 Eisenhower
1959 290.978 2.85% 64 34 1.88 283 153 1.85 0 1 1959 Eisenhower
1960 290.217 -0.26% 64 34 1.88 283 153 1.85 0 1 1960 Eisenhower
1961 296.169 2.05% 64 36 1.78 262 175 1.50 1 0 1961 Kennedy
1962 303.47 2.47% 64 36 1.78 262 175 1.50 1 0 1962 Kennedy/Johnson
1963 309.347 1.94% 67 33 2.03 258 176 1.47 1 0 1963 Johnson
1964 317.94 2.78% 67 33 2.03 258 176 1.47 1 0 1964 Johnson
1965 320.904 0.93% 68 32 2.13 295 140 2.11 1 0 1965 Johnson
1966 329.319 2.62% 68 32 2.13 295 140 2.11 1 0 1966 Johnson
1967 344.663 4.66% 64 36 1.78 248 187 1.33 1 0 1967 Johnson
1968 358.029 3.88% 64 36 1.78 248 187 1.33 1 0 1968 Johnson
1969 368.226 2.85% 58 42 1.38 243 192 1.27 0 1 1969 Nixon
1970 389.158 5.68% 58 42 1.38 243 192 1.27 0 1 1970 Nixon
1971 424.131 8.99% 54 44 1.23 255 180 1.42 0 1 1971 Nixon
1972 449.298 5.93% 54 44 1.23 255 180 1.42 0 1 1972 Nixon
1973 469.989 4.61% 56 42 1.33 242 192 1.26 0 1 1973 Nixon
1974 492.665 4.82% 56 42 1.33 242 192 1.26 0 1 1974 Nixon
1975 576.649 17.05% 61 37 1.65 291 144 2.02 0 1 1975 Nixon
1976 653.544 13.33% 61 37 1.65 291 144 2.02 0 1 1976 Nixon
1977 718.943 10.01% 61 38 1.61 292 143 2.04 1 0 1977 Carter
1978 789.207 9.77% 61 38 1.61 292 143 2.04 1 0 1978 Carter
1979 845.116 7.08% 58 41 1.41 277 158 1.75 1 0 1979 Reagan
1980 930.21 10.07% 58 41 1.41 277 158 1.75 1 0 1980 Reagan
1981 1028.729 10.59% 46 53 0.87 242 192 1.26 0 1 1981 Reagan
1982 1197.073 16.36% 46 53 0.87 242 192 1.26 0 1 1982 Reagan
1983 1410.702 17.85% 46 54 0.85 269 166 1.62 0 1 1983 Reagan
1984 1662.966 17.88% 46 54 0.85 269 166 1.62 0 1 1984 Reagan
1985 1945.942 17.02% 47 53 0.89 253 182 1.39 0 1 1985 Reagan
1986 2125.303 9.22% 47 53 0.89 253 182 1.39 0 1 1986 Reagan
1987 2350.277 10.59% 55 45 1.22 258 177 1.46 0 1 1987 Reagan
1988 2602.338 10.72% 55 45 1.22 258 177 1.46 0 1 1988 Bush
1989 2857.431 9.80% 55 45 1.22 260 175 1.49 0 1 1989 Bush
1990 3233.313 13.15% 55 45 1.22 260 175 1.49 0 1 1990 Bush
1991 3665.303 13.36% 56 44 1.27 267 167 1.60 0 1 1991 Bush
1992 4064.621 10.89% 56 44 1.27 267 167 1.60 0 1 1992 Bush
1993 4411.489 8.53% 57 43 1.33 258 176 1.47 1 0 1993 Clinton
1994 4692.75 6.38% 57 43 1.33 258 176 1.47 1 0 1994 Clinton
1995 4973.983 5.99% 48 52 0.92 204 230 0.89 1 0 1995 Clinton
1996 5224.811 5.04% 48 52 0.92 204 230 0.89 1 0 1996 Clinton
1997 5413.146 3.60% 45 52 0.87 207 226 0.92 1 0 1997 Clinton
1998 5526.193 2.09% 45 52 0.87 207 226 0.92 1 0 1998 Clinton
1999 5656.271 2.35% 45 52 0.87 211 223 0.95 1 0 1999 Clinton
45 52 0.87 211 223 0.95 1 0 2000 Clinton
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