Gross Domestic Product and Political Parties

L. David Roper (roperld@vt.edu)

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This shows the U. S. gross domestic product per capita data for the years 1929-1999 compared to the presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition).
This shows the GDP per capita % change year by year for the years 1929-1999 compared to presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and the Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition). The averages for each presidential administration are shown. Note the slow down and large oscillations in the Reagan/Bush administrations.
This shows the average % change in the GDP per capita for presidential administrations. Standard deviations are shown. Note the lows for Eisenhower and Bush and the high for Carter with a small standard deviation.
This shows the average % change in the GDP per capita for the Democratic control index (see below for definition). Standard deviations are shown. Note the low for index 0 (Republican president, house and senate). The highest average is for full Democratic control (index 7) with a large standard deviation.
This shows the average % change in the GDP per capita for the Democratic control index (see below for definition) excluding the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations, since the Hoover and Roosevelt admininistrations included the singular events of the Great Depression and World War II. Standard deviations are shown. Note the low for index 0 (Republican president, house and senate). The highest average is for index 2, which is for Republican control of president and House, but not the Senate.
This shows the average % change in the GDP plotted for presidential administrations by political party. Standard deviations are shown. Since the Hoover and Roosevelt admininistrations included the singular events of the Great Depression and World War II, also shown are the administrations without those two administrations. Note the low for Republican admininistrations including Hoover and the high for Democratic presidents including Roosevelt, but both with a large standard deviation. Without the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations, the Democrats are slightly higher than the Republicans.

The correlation coefficients for Democratic control of the Senate, House and presidency with the % change in GDP are:

Correlations GDP % Change
Senate Dem/Rep 0.19
House Dem/Rep 0.18
President Dem. 0.27
Democratic Control Index 0.41

Thus, we see that postive change in GDP occurs about 27% more often when we have a Democratic president than when we have a Republican president and about 41% more often when we have mostly Democractic control of the govenment. These correlations are mostly due to the Hoover and the Franklin Roosevelt administrations.

The correlations for political party control since the Franklin Roosevelt administration are practically nil.

The Democratic Control Index is defined as
  • 7=Democratic party has presidency and majorities in both the Senate and House.
  • 6=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the House.
  • 5=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the Senate.
  • 4=Democratic party has presidency only.
  • 3=Democratic party has majority in the House and Senate, but not the presidency.
  • 2=Democratic party has majority in the House only and not the presidency.
  • 1=Democratic party has majority in the Senate only and not the presidency.
  • 0=Democratic party is in minority in both the Senate and the House and does not have the presidency.
A diagram showing the Democratic Party Control Index:
Democratic Control Democratic Party Control Index Republican Control
nothing 0 President, House & Senate
Senate 1 President & House
House 2 President & Senate
House & Senate 3 President
President 4 House & Senate
President & Senate 5 House
President & House 6 Senate
President, House & Senate 7 nothing

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These data are found at http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/st-tabs.htm .

(Billion $) million people $1000/person Senate House President
Year GDP % GDP Change Population GDP/person % Change GDP/person Dem. Rep. Senate Dem/Rep Dem. Rep. House Dem/Rep President Dem. Democrat Control Index Year President Average % Change
1929 103.7 121.77 0.85 39 56 0.70 163 267 0.61 0 0 1929 Hoover -17.79%
1930 91.3 -11.96% 123.08 0.74 -12.89% 39 56 0.70 163 267 0.61 0 0 1930 Hoover -17.79%
1931 76.6 -16.10% 124.04 0.62 -16.75% 47 48 0.98 216 218 0.99 0 0 1931 Hoover -17.79%
1932 58.8 -23.24% 124.84 0.47 -23.73% 47 48 0.98 216 218 0.99 0 0 1932 Hoover -17.79%
1933 56.4 -4.08% 125.58 0.45 -4.65% 59 36 1.64 313 117 2.68 1 7 1933 RooseveltF 11.09%
1934 66 17.02% 126.37 0.52 16.29% 59 36 1.64 313 117 2.68 1 7 1934 RooseveltF 11.09%
1935 73.3 11.06% 127.25 0.58 10.30% 69 25 2.76 322 103 3.13 1 7 1935 RooseveltF 11.09%
1936 83.7 14.19% 128.05 0.65 13.47% 69 25 2.76 322 103 3.13 1 7 1936 RooseveltF 11.09%
1937 91.9 9.80% 128.82 0.71 9.14% 75 17 4.41 333 89 3.74 1 7 1937 RooseveltF 11.09%
1938 86.1 -6.31% 129.82 0.66 -7.03% 75 17 4.41 333 89 3.74 1 7 1938 RooseveltF 11.09%
1939 92 6.85% 130.88 0.70 5.99% 69 23 3.00 262 169 1.55 1 7 1939 RooseveltF 11.09%
1940 101.3 10.11% 132.12 0.77 9.07% 69 23 3.00 262 169 1.55 1 7 1940 RooseveltF 11.09%
1941 126.7 25.07% 133.40 0.95 23.87% 66 28 2.36 267 162 1.65 1 7 1941 RooseveltF 11.09%
1942 161.8 27.70% 134.86 1.20 26.32% 66 28 2.36 267 162 1.65 1 7 1942 RooseveltF 11.09%
1943 198.4 22.62% 136.74 1.45 20.93% 57 38 1.50 222 209 1.06 1 7 1943 RooseveltF 11.09%
1944 219.7 10.74% 138.40 1.59 9.41% 57 38 1.50 222 209 1.06 1 7 1944 RooseveltF 11.09%
1945 223 1.50% 139.93 1.59 0.39% 57 38 1.50 243 190 1.28 1 7 1945 RooseveltF/Truman 4.74%
1946 222.3 -0.31% 141.39 1.57 -1.34% 57 38 1.50 243 190 1.28 1 7 1946 Truman 4.74%
1947 244.4 9.94% 144.03 1.70 7.93% 45 51 0.88 188 246 0.76 1 4 1947 Truman 4.74%
1948 269.6 10.31% 146.63 1.84 8.35% 45 51 0.88 188 246 0.76 1 4 1948 Truman 4.74%
1949 267.7 -0.70% 149.19 1.79 -2.41% 54 42 1.29 263 171 1.54 1 7 1949 Truman 4.74%
1950 294.3 9.94% 152.27 1.93 7.71% 54 42 1.29 263 171 1.54 1 7 1950 Truman 4.74%
1951 339.5 15.36% 154.88 2.19 13.42% 48 47 1.02 234 199 1.18 1 7 1951 Truman 4.74%
1952 358.6 5.63% 157.55 2.28 3.83% 48 47 1.02 234 199 1.18 1 7 1952 Truman 4.74%
1953 379.9 5.94% 160.18 2.37 4.20% 46 48 0.96 213 221 0.96 0 0 1953 Eisenhower 3.20%
1954 381.1 0.32% 163.03 2.34 -1.43% 46 48 0.96 213 221 0.96 0 0 1954 Eisenhower 3.20%
1955 415.2 8.95% 165.93 2.50 7.04% 48 47 1.02 232 203 1.14 0 3 1955 Eisenhower 3.20%
1956 438 5.49% 168.90 2.59 3.64% 48 47 1.02 232 203 1.14 0 3 1956 Eisenhower 3.20%
1957 461.5 5.37% 171.98 2.68 3.48% 49 47 1.04 234 201 1.16 0 3 1957 Eisenhower 3.20%
1958 467.9 1.39% 174.88 2.68 -0.29% 49 47 1.04 234 201 1.16 0 3 1958 Eisenhower 3.20%
1959 507.4 8.44% 177.83 2.85 6.64% 64 34 1.88 283 153 1.85 0 3 1959 Eisenhower 3.20%
1960 527.4 3.94% 180.67 2.92 2.31% 64 34 1.88 283 153 1.85 0 3 1960 Eisenhower 3.20%
1961 545.7 3.47% 183.69 2.97 1.77% 64 36 1.78 262 175 1.50 1 7 1961 Kennedy 5.70%
1962 586.5 7.48% 186.54 3.14 5.84% 64 36 1.78 262 175 1.50 1 7 1962 Kennedy/Johnson 5.70%
1963 618.7 5.49% 189.24 3.27 3.98% 67 33 2.03 258 176 1.47 1 7 1963 Johnson 5.70%
1964 664.4 7.39% 191.89 3.46 5.91% 67 33 2.03 258 176 1.47 1 7 1964 Johnson 5.70%
1965 720.1 8.38% 194.30 3.71 7.04% 68 32 2.13 295 140 2.11 1 7 1965 Johnson 5.70%
1966 789.3 9.61% 196.56 4.02 8.35% 68 32 2.13 295 140 2.11 1 7 1966 Johnson 5.70%
1967 834.1 5.68% 198.71 4.20 4.53% 64 36 1.78 248 187 1.33 1 7 1967 Johnson 5.70%
1968 911.5 9.28% 200.71 4.54 8.19% 64 36 1.78 248 187 1.33 1 7 1968 Johnson 5.70%
1969 985.3 8.10% 202.68 4.86 7.05% 58 42 1.38 243 192 1.27 0 3 1969 Nixon 7.95%
1970 1039.7 5.52% 205.05 5.07 4.30% 58 42 1.38 243 192 1.27 0 3 1970 Nixon 7.95%
1971 1128.6 8.55% 207.66 5.43 7.19% 54 44 1.23 255 180 1.42 0 3 1971 Nixon 7.95%
1972 1240.4 9.91% 209.90 5.91 8.74% 54 44 1.23 255 180 1.42 0 3 1972 Nixon 7.95%
1973 1385.5 11.70% 211.91 6.54 10.64% 56 42 1.33 242 192 1.26 0 3 1973 Nixon 7.95%
1974 1501 8.34% 213.85 7.02 7.35% 56 42 1.33 242 192 1.26 0 3 1974 Nixon 7.95%
1975 1635.2 8.94% 215.97 7.57 7.87% 61 37 1.65 291 144 2.02 0 3 1975 Nixon 7.95%
1976 1823.9 11.54% 218.04 8.37 10.49% 61 37 1.65 291 144 2.02 0 3 1976 Nixon 7.95%
1977 2031.4 11.38% 220.24 9.22 10.26% 61 38 1.61 292 143 2.04 1 7 1977 Carter 10.13%
1978 2295.9 13.02% 222.58 10.31 11.83% 61 38 1.61 292 143 2.04 1 7 1978 Carter 10.13%
1979 2566.4 11.78% 225.06 11.40 10.55% 58 41 1.41 277 158 1.75 1 7 1979 Carter 10.13%
1980 2795.6 8.93% 227.22 12.30 7.89% 58 41 1.41 277 158 1.75 1 7 1980 Carter 10.13%
1981 3131.3 12.01% 229.47 13.65 10.91% 46 53 0.87 242 192 1.26 0 2 1981 Reagan 6.87%
1982 3259.2 4.08% 231.66 14.07 3.10% 46 53 0.87 242 192 1.26 0 2 1982 Reagan 6.87%
1983 3534.9 8.46% 233.79 15.12 7.47% 46 54 0.85 269 166 1.62 0 2 1983 Reagan 6.87%
1984 3932.7 11.25% 235.82 16.68 10.29% 46 54 0.85 269 166 1.62 0 2 1984 Reagan 6.87%
1985 4213 7.13% 237.92 17.71 6.18% 47 53 0.89 253 182 1.39 0 2 1985 Reagan 6.87%
1986 4452.9 5.69% 240.13 18.54 4.72% 47 53 0.89 253 182 1.39 0 2 1986 Reagan 6.87%
1987 4742.5 6.50% 242.29 19.57 5.56% 55 45 1.22 258 177 1.46 0 3 1987 Reagan 6.87%
1988 5108.3 7.71% 244.50 20.89 6.74% 55 45 1.22 258 177 1.46 0 3 1988 Reagan 6.87%
1989 5489.1 7.45% 246.82 22.24 6.44% 55 45 1.22 260 175 1.49 0 3 1989 Bush 4.37%
1990 5803.2 5.72% 249.46 23.26 4.60% 55 45 1.22 260 175 1.49 0 3 1990 Bush 4.37%
1991 5986.2 3.15% 252.15 23.74 2.05% 56 44 1.27 267 167 1.60 0 3 1991 Bush 4.37%
1992 6318.9 5.56% 255.03 24.78 4.37% 56 44 1.27 267 167 1.60 0 3 1992 Bush 4.37%
1993 6642.3 5.12% 257.78 25.77 4.00% 57 43 1.33 258 176 1.47 1 7 1993 Clinton 4.67%
1994 7054.3 6.20% 260.33 27.10 5.16% 57 43 1.33 258 176 1.47 1 7 1994 Clinton 4.67%
1995 7400.5 4.91% 262.80 28.16 3.92% 48 52 0.92 204 230 0.89 1 4 1995 Clinton 4.67%
1996 7813.2 5.58% 265.23 29.46 4.61% 48 52 0.92 204 230 0.89 1 4 1996 Clinton 4.67%
1997 8318.4 6.47% 267.78 31.06 5.45% 45 52 0.87 207 226 0.92 1 4 1997 Clinton 4.67%
1998 8790.2 5.67% 270.25 32.53 4.71% 45 52 0.87 207 226 0.92 1 4 1998 Clinton 4.67%
1999 9299.2 5.79% 272.69 34.10 4.84% 45 52 0.87 211 223 0.95 1 4 1999 Clinton 4.67%
2000 277.00 45 52 0.87 211 223 0.95 1 4 2000 Clinton
Year GDP % GDP Change Population GDP/person % Change GDP/person Dem. Rep. Senate Dem/Rep Dem. Rep. House Dem/Rep President Dem. Democrat Control Index Year President Average % Change

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