Gun Control: A Rational Approach

L. David Roper, http://www.roperld.com/personal/roperldavid.htm
20-Jul-2018

Message from a Responsible Gun Owner
U.S. Firearms Transaction Form
Firearms Background Check Procedure Policy Summary

Virginia Governor McAuliffe bans firearms in most state offices

A nation captive to The Gun

More Guns Do Not Stop More Crimes, Evidence Shows

Contents

• U.S. Constitution Second Amendment
  • Insurrection and Firearms
• Human Evolution
• A Rational Approach to Gun Control
• Gun Data by Countries
• Gun Laws by Countries
• Gun Deaths by U.S. States
• U.S. Gun Deaths by Year
• U.S. Gun Deaths Compared to Motor-Vehicle Deaths
• U.S. Gun Deaths by Age
• Mass Shootings in U.S. 1980-2015
• School Shootings in U.S. 1984-2015
• Church Shootings in U.S.
• U.S. Homocides by Weapon Type
• Children with Guns
• U.S. Gun Deaths Compared to Terrorism Deaths
• Source of Guns by Inmates
• Gun Laws by U.S. States
  • Scorecard for States
• Partisan Views of Gun Proposals
• Reasons People Want Guns
• Gun Sales
• Brain Harewired to Snap
• Dangerous Scenarios
• Logical Statements
• Suggested Federal Gun Laws
• Gun Control in Japan
• References
• Appendix

Introduction

Commentaries abound about gun control using emotional and legal approaches. One approach to the topic I have not read is a rational approach. This is an attempt at such an approach.

Herein I mostly consider data for all deaths due to guns. I do consider mass shooting, school shootings, church shootings and gun deaths by age. I do not study suicides, homicides, and deaths according to ethnicity.

U.S. Constitution Second Amendment (15 December 1791)

"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

1790s Guns

Ketland Pistol:

1795 Musket:

Since these are representative of the guns that were available in 1791 when the Second Amendment was passed, should only these types of guns be allowed for people to keep and bear arms? Or should modern bazookas, machine guns, grenade launchers, depleted-uranium-tipped-bulleted cannons, etc. be allowed in anyone's house or be allowed to be carried around?

Insurrection and Firearms

The second amendment probably was motivated to facilitate violent overthrow of despotic government by arming militia(s). The Supreme Court has ruled that owning firearms is independent of being in a militia, which is currently called the National Guard. The firepower of modern governments is too great to allow violent protest with firearms to succeed; instead, as seen many times around the world, mass citizen violence usually leads to chaos. Probably the only way to overthrow government without precipitating chaos is by non-violent protest, not firearms, as seen many times. Every modern example of citizens trying to overthrow despots by armed revolution has resulted in chaos: e.g., Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Several modern examples exist of citizens overthrowing despots by mostly non-violent protests: e.g., British India, Jim-Crow southern U.S. states; Soviet Union, South Africa, Tunisia and Egypt (twice).

Human Evolution

In ~200,000 of human evolution, guns have been available for humans to kill each other for only ~700 years and the extremely high killability of guns has only existed for ~115 years. That is not enough time for physical (including emotional) evolution to cause humans to use guns in such a way as to insure their survival. Humans have learned how to speed up social aspects of their evolution. We are capable of doing that with regard to our use of guns.

A Rational Approach to Gun Control

Of course, any approach has to account for the existence of the second amendment of the U.S. constitution. To change an amendment is an arduous task, so I will assume that it will remain in force as interpreted by the U.S. Supreme Court, and all gun-control measures must abide by it. The current Supreme Court has interpreted that the final phrase of the amendment is independent of the first phrase; a future Supreme Court may change that if carnage due to guns in the U.S. continues to grow.

A rational approach to gun control in designing gun laws might reduce the high death rate due to guns in the U.S.

Data fluctuate with time, but the death rate due to guns in the U.S. is at least three times higher than for any other developed nation; it is about 17 times more than for the United Kingdom and over 7 times more than for Australia, a nation that developed with a “wild west” mentality similar to ours. It is about 177 times more than for Japan.

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General Gun Data

Gun Data by Countries

Most developed countries of the world, except the United States, have learned how to use guns without compromising the lives of their citizens.

The correlation between guns/100 and gun-deaths/100,000 is 0.888, very high!

 Data fluctuate with time, but the death rate due to guns in the U.S. is at least three times higher than for any other developed nation; it is about 17 times more than for the United Kingdom and over 7 times more than for Australia, a nation that developed with a “wild west” history similar to ours. It is about 177 times more than for Japan.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/03/one-map-shows-why-americas-gun-violence-is-so-much-worse-than-anywhere-else/

Do Guns Prevent Crime

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Gun Laws by Countries

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overview_of_gun_laws_by_nation

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Gun Data by U.S. States

U.S. households with guns:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2012/12/19/a-gun-ownership-renaissance/
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150353/self-reported-gun-ownership-highest-1993.aspx

Gun Deaths by U.S. States

Gun Deaths (2013)

State	Guns owned % House	State	Guns owned % House	State	Deaths /100,000	State	Deaths /100,000
WY	59.7	IN	39.1	AK	19.8	PA	11.2
AK	57.8	NE	38.6	LA	19.3	OH	11
MT	57.7	MI	38.4	MS	17.8	OR	11
SD	56.6	TX	35.9	AL	17.6	ME	10.9
WV	55.4	VA	35.1	AR	16.8	TX	10.6
AR	55.3	NM	34.8	MT	16.7	DE	10.3
ID	55.3	CO	34.7	WY	16.7	VA	10.2
MS	55.3	PA	34.7	OK	16.5	SD	10
AL	51.7	NV	33.8	NM	15.5	MD	9.7
ND	50.7	WA	33.1	TN	15.4	WI	9.7
KY	47.7	OH	32.4	SC	15.2	VT	9.2
WI	44.4	AZ	31.1	MO	14.4	NE	9
LA	44.1	NH	30	WV	14.3	DC	8.9
TN	43.9	DE	25.5	AZ	14.1	WA	8.7
UT	43.9	FL	24.5	ID	14.1	IL	8.6
IA	42.9	CA	21.3	NV	13.8	IA	8
OK	42.9	MD	21.3	KY	13.7	CA	7.7
SC	42.3	IL	20.2	IN	13	MN	7.6
KS	42.1	NY	18	GA	12.6	NH	6.4
VT	42	CT	16.7	UT	12.6	NJ	5.7
MN	41.7	RI	12.8	NC	12.1	RI	5.3
MO	41.7	MA	12.6	MI	12	CT	4.4
NC	41.3	NJ	12.3	FL	11.9	NY	4.2
ME	40.5	HI	6.7	ND	11.8	MA	3.1
GA	40.3	DC	3.6	CO	11.5	HI	2.6
OR	39.8			KS	11.4

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States_by_state
http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/firearms-death-rate-per-100000/

There is a very high correlation between percent household gun ownership and gun-deaths/100,000 by U.S. states: about +0.76.
There is a very high anti-correlation between gun-deaths/100,000 and the Democratic vote in the 2012 presidential election: about -0.66.

http://www.care2.com/causes/having-more-guns-doesnt-make-us-safer-4.html

U.S. Gun Deaths By Years

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Gun Deaths and Motor-Vehicle Deaths

Will there be a crossover in 2015? Autonomous cars, which are eminent, will greatly reduce motor-vehicle deaths.

U.S. Gun Deaths by Age

We are killing our young!

Pitts: Toddlers average one shooting a week.

Mass Shootings in U.S. 1984-2015

Year	1998	#	2000	#	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Shootings/year	1	4	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	3	1	2	2	2	6	2	2	2
Deaths/Year	5	#	7	2	3	5	0	9	5	45	5	26	11	14	61	17	9	18
Injuries/year	10	#	0	#	0	9	0	7	5	25	16	36	5	12	70	3	23	9

The solid line in these 3 graphs in the linear trend.

• http://www.care2.com/causes/the-worst-mass-shooting-in-us-history.html
• http://www.shootingtracker.com/

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School Shootings in the U.S. 1980-2015

See the Appendix for a list of the school shootings since 1980 up to 1 October 2015.

Total shootings	0 deaths	1 death	2 deaths	3 deaths	4 deaths	5 deaths	6 deaths	7 deaths	8 deaths	>8 deaths
247	97	90	34	9	3	3	4	2	0	5

Total	0 injuries	1 injury	2 injuries	3 injuries	4 injuries	5 injuries	6 injuries	7 injuries	8 injuries	>8 injuries
247	99	59	36	19	7	4	4	3	1	13

1=1980-1989, 2=1990-1999, 3=2000-2004, 4=2005-2009, 5=2010. 6=2011, 7=2012, 8=2013, 9=2014:

Perhaps the projected reduction of school shootings for 2015 is due to enhanced security at schools.

2015 projection are for last 3 months.

Although the number of shootings appears to be down in 2015, the number of deaths and injuries are almost as large as previous years. Perhaps this is because larger clips are being used by the shooters.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/02/28/opinion/when-may-i-shoot-a-student.html?post_id=1624120557_10206501136040201&_r=0

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Church Shootings in the U.S.

Number of Church Shootings 1980-2005

CA	IL	TX	NY	AZ	FL	PA	WI	OH	MI	AL	CO	GA	IN	NM	OK	AR	KS	LA	MS	NV	NC	OR	WA	KY	MN	MO	MT	TN	VT	VA	DC
17	15	13	12	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

In 2015 nine people were killed in a church in Charleston SC. Other recent deaths and injuries due to church shootings:

2008	TN	2	7
2012	WI	6	1
2014	KS	3	0
2014	CA	0	0
2015	CT	0	1
2015	SC	9	0

Homocides by Weapon Type and Age

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States

Homocides by handguns were about more than the sum of all other methods in 2004.

Children with Guns

• When guns fall into the tiniest of hands

U.S. Gun Deaths Compared to Terrorism Deaths

Note that, in 2001, gun deaths were 29,573 and terrorism deaths were 2990!

Source of Guns of Inmates

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Gun Laws by U.S. States

Handgun laws by state:

	State	Permit to Purchase	Registration of Handguns	Licensing of Owners
1	Alabama	0	0	0
2	Alaska	0	0	0
3	Arizona	0	0	0
4	Arkansas	0	0	0
5	California	1	1	0
6	Colorado	0	0	0
7	Connecticut	1	0	1
8	Delaware	0	0	0
9	Florida	0	0	0
10	Georgia	0	0	0
11	Hawaii	1	1	0
12	Idaho	0	0	0
13	Illinois	1	0	1
14	Indiana	0	0	0
15	Iowa	1	0	0
16	Kansas	0	0	0
17	Kentucky	0	0	0
18	Louisiana	0	0	0
19	Maine	0	0	0
20	Maryland	1	1	1
21	Massachusetts	1	0	1
22	Michigan	1	1	0
23	Minnesota	1	0	0
24	Mississippi	0	0	0
25	Missouri	0	0	0
26	Montana	0	0	0
27	Nebraska	1	0	0
28	Nevada	0	0	0
29	New Hampshire	0	0	0
30	New Jersey	1	0	1
31	New Mexico	0	0	0
32	New York	1	1	1
33	North Carolina	1	0	0
34	North Dakota	0	0	0
35	Ohio	0	0	0
36	Oklahoma	0	0	0
37	Oregon	0	0	0
38	Pennsylvania	0	0	0
39	Rhode Island	0	0	0
40	South Carolina	0	0	0
41	South Dakota	0	0	0
42	Tennessee	0	0	0
43	Texas	0	0	0
44	Utah	0	0	0
45	Vermont	0	0	0
46	Virginia	0	0	0
47	Washington	0	0	0
48	West Virginia	0	0	0
49	Wisconsin	0	0	0
50	Wyoming	0	0	0
	Sum	13	5	6

2013 U.S. States Gun-Laws Scorecard

State	Score
CA	A-
CT	A-
MD	A-
NJ	A-
NY	A-
MA	B+
IL	B
RI	B-
CO	C
MI	C
MN	C
PA	C
WA	C
DE	C-
IA	C-
WI	C-
OR	D+
NE	D
OH	D
VA	D
AL	D-
NH	D-

All states not listed have an F score.

Assigning numeric scores:

A+	A	A-	B+	B	B-	C+	C	C-	D+	D	D-	F+	F	F-
5	4.65	4.3	3.95	3.6	3.26	2.9	2.55	2.2	1.85	1.5	1.15	0.8	0.48	0

The correlation between gun deaths and gun-laws' scores is -0.53; that is, there is a high anti-correlation between gun deaths and gun-laws; better laws highly correlate with fewer gun deaths.

Calculating the correlation between gun deaths and states' vote for the Democratic candidate in the 2012 presidential election yields -0.65; that is, states that voted Democratic have by far fewer gun deaths. The correlation between gun laws' scores and the Democratic vote in the 2012 presidential election is +0.37, slightly positive.

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Partisan Views of Gun Proposals

Reasons People Want Guns

• To protect themselves and their families.
• To intimidate other people.
• To be part of insurrections against their government. Some claim that this is the emphasis of the Second Amendment to the Constitution.
• To hunt animals for food or for sport.
• To commit crimes.

Brain is Hardwired to Snap

"From domestic violence to mass shootings, the news is full of stories of seemingly “normal” people suddenly going berserk. The easy availability of guns only compounds the problem."

Dangerous Scenarios

1. You carry a gun so you can stop a person who is shooting at others. You are walking along and you hear gun shots coming from around the corner of a building. You run around the corner and see two people shooting at each other. At which one should you shoot? Would it depend on the color of the skin or the mode of dress or the sex of the two shooters? See http://www.nbcnews.com/id/41018893/ns/slate_com/t/armed-giffords-hero-nearly-shot-wrong-man/#.VhKdPHpVhBc
2. You carry a gun so you can stop a person who is shooting at others. You are in the back of a crowded theater. You hear commotion and gun shots way down in front. You pull out your gun after you notice several people shooting guns down in front. Do you shoot all of the shooters you see? If you start shooting, will a person near you pull out a gun and shoot you?
3. You here gunshots in a crowd ahead. You pull out your gun and rush ahead. A SWAT team member sees you with a gun and shoots you.
4. You are at home and your gun is locked in a cabinet so your children can not get it. Some person rings your doorbell. When you open the door you are shot by the person.
5. Your gun is kept in a drawer beside your bed. A neighbor child visiting your child finds your gun and accidentally shoots your child while playing with your gun.
6. You keep a gun in your desk at work. You get in an argument with a co-worker at the next desk. You both pull out your guns and shoot each other.
7. All citizens carry guns because they fear someone may shoot them. Many times large shootouts occur because of misunderstandings and many people are killed and injured.
8. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/11/04/1444653/-Three-shot-in-a-Cracker-Barrel-restaurant-after-Florida-Man-s-concealed-gun-falls-out-of-holster?detail=email
9. http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/1/12/1468755/-Ohio-man-shot-his-14-year-old-son-after-mistaking-him-for-an-intruder?detail=email
10. What Bullets do to Bodies

Logical Statements

• A machine gun or other mass-killing weapon is not needed to protect a family.
• The more guns people have the more people will be killed by guns.
• The major way to reduce the availability of guns to mentally-ill or criminal people is to have federal universal background checks for ALL gun purchases and transfers.
• It is more dangerous to carry a gun in most social situations than it is to depend on police.
• In most neighborhoods it is more dangerous to have a gun unsecured in your house than it is to depend on police.

Suggested Federal Gun Laws

1. All future gun purchases can only occur after an extensive background check for the buyer. The purchased gun will be registered in the name of the purchaser with the gun's serial number recorded.
2. There is a federally mandated waiting period after a background check has been made before a purchase can be completed, unless a court order specifies otherwise. During this waiting period, first-time gun buyers must take a minimal firearms safety course.
3. A gun buyer must have an insurance policy for any injury due to that gun or deposit a fixed sum into a federal fund, similar to auto insurance.
4. A gun can legally be transferred to another person only after the transferee has undergone the same background check as a gun purchaser.
5. Certain rifles will be designated as hunting guns when registered and special conditions are placed on the use of hunting guns.
6. No gun will be sold that can handle clips of more than five (5) bullets.
7. Expanding bullets can be sold only to buyers with special federal permits.
8. Since the Second Amendment states that gun ownership is for the purpose of a well regulated Militia and the well regulated Militia of the U.S. is the National Guard, all gun owners are subject to militia training and being called upon by the National Guard for service during national emergencies.
9. Permits to carry a gun on a person or in a vehicle owned by a person will be granted only if federally stated rational reasons for doing so are met.
10. All guns in houses with children in them are required to be locked in cabinets or have automatic locks (smart guns)

http://www.care2.com/causes/research-claims-three-federal-laws-could-dramatically-cut-gun-deaths.html

References

• http://www.care2.com/causes/gunshot-wounds-cost-americans-more-than-700-million-annually.html
• Another Day in the Death of America: A Chronicle of Ten Short Lives by Gary Younge
• https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/second_amendment
• http://harvardlawreview.org/topics/second-amendment/
• http://www.care2.com/causes/5-myths-about-gun-control.html
• http://www.care2.com/causes/gun-laws-really-do-stop-gun-violence.html
• http://www.care2.com/causes/4-stories-proving-we-need-to-keep-guns-away-from-kids.html
• http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/4-pro-gun-arguments-were-sick-of-hearing-20151001?page=2
• http://www.roanoke.com/opinion/letters/baker-gun-insurance-would-be-a-win-win-for-public/article_4405a6f0-e7a9-5a48-9099-aa0a941d2726.html
• https://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/19/1299907/-Cartoon-Guns-everywhere?detail=emailclassic
• 2013 State Scorecard: Why Gun Laws Matter
• https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/how-roberts-court-undermined-sensible-gun-control
• http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/06/1428369/-Gun-owner-records-must-see-video-for-all-responsible-gun-owners?detail=email
• http://www.factcheck.org/2012/12/gun-rhetoric-vs-gun-facts/
• http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2012/12/19/a-gun-ownership-renaissance/
• http://www.livescience.com/51446-guns-do-not-deter-crime.html
• http://www.amazon.com/Gun-Laws-State-Reciprocity-Reference/dp/0985498471
• http://gunlawbook.com/product/gun-laws-by-state-2015-edition/
• Politicians & Elections of NRA
• http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/03/1427420/-Armed-Vet-proves-NRA-wrong-and-explains-why-he-didn-t-confront-Oregon-Killer-with-Good-Guy-Gun?detail=email
• http://civilliberty.about.com/od/guncontrol/a/Gun-Rights-Ronald-Reagan.htm
• http://www.projectchildsafe.org/
• http://www.care2.com/causes/does-mental-illness-cause-gun-violence.html
• http://everytown.org/
• http://www.roanoke.com/opinion/commentary/edlich-gun-violence-a-national-epidemic/article_0aded6c9-8fa2-58db-9265-582d09a558b0.html
• http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/mass-shootings-investigation
• http://www.psmag.com/health-and-behavior/actually-know-connections-mental-illness-mass-shootings-gun-violence-83103
• http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/gun-laws-associated-with-lower-suicide-rates/?_r=0
• http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/12/us/gun-law-homicide-drop/
• http://wgno.com/2015/09/22/study-stricter-state-gun-laws-keep-firearms-out-of-hands-of-youth/
• http://guns.periscopic.com/?year=2010
• http://www.vpc.org/press/self-defense-gun-use-is-rare-study-finds/
• http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-12-19/american-gun-deaths-to-exceed-traffic-fatalities-by-2015
• http://www.fixnics.org/why.cfm
• http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/1/30/why-massachusetts-has-the-least-guns-deaths.html
• http://www.roanoke.com/opinion/cyr-here-s-how-americans-can-have-guns-and-eliminate/article_8fa054f8-6add-5c6c-9683-5e5d7c929746.html
• http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/13/1431518/-Charges-filed-against-woman-who-open-fired-at-suspected-shoplifters-in-Michigan?detail=email
• http://www.businessinsider.com/canada-australia-japan-britain-gun-control-2013-1
• http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/03/1427420/-Armed-Vet-proves-NRA-wrong-and-explains-why-he-didn-t-confront-Oregon-Killer-with-Good-Guy-Gun?detail=email
• Church-shootings database
• http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/11/17/1451153/-A-couple-of-thousand-suspected-terrorists-on-the-FBI-watch-list-had-no-trouble-buying-firearms?detail=email
• http://thehill.com/regulation/243425-house-bill-would-require-gun-owners-to-carry-insurance
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_gun
• http://www.care2.com/causes/theres-a-silent-epidemic-of-domestic-violence-related-shootings-in-the-u-s.html
• http://everytown.org/issue/domestic-violence/
• http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/uncucumbered/mandatory_gun_insurance_a_practical_plan_to_make_america_safer
• http://www.care2.com/causes/missouri-lawmaker-wants-to-regulate-guns-comparably-to-uteruses.html
• http://www.care2.com/causes/its-time-to-repeal-the-ban-on-gun-violence-research.html
• http://www.care2.com/causes/4-meaningful-steps-toward-fewer-mass-shootings.html
• https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/01/04/fact-sheet-new-executive-actions-reduce-gun-violence-and-make-our
• http://www.roanoke.com/opinion/commentary/liebrecht-myths-and-truths-about-the-second-amendment/article_60b959b0-4262-56d1-a208-c3465d74b526.html
• http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/34349-gun-culture-and-the-american-nightmare-of-violence
• http://www.roanoke.com/news/virginia-s-gun-show-arrests-rise-but-denial-to-arrest/article_c29156f4-dc5c-5a3c-9c31-c0edbf54faf0.html
• http://www.roanoke.com/news/politics/general_assembly/parents-of-slain-wdbj-journalist-advocate-gun-control-at-capitol/article_b02b4adf-aa44-505f-ac1d-cff4d5cbb8dd.html
• http://www.roanoke.com/opinion/letters/whittier-what-if-non-whites-were-at-gun-rally/article_a24372a7-ad41-561e-9852-727596680de9.html
• http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/1/26/1475309/-Couple-left-four-children-in-a-car-with-a-loaded-gun-boy-accidentally-killed-his-7-year-old-brother?detail=email
• https://www.callersmart.com/articles/28/Everything-You-Need-To-Know-About-Background-Checks-and-Pre-Employment-Screening
• In one week, 4 toddlers accidently shoot, kill selves

Message from a Responsible Gun Owner

Appendix

School Shootings since 1980 up to 1 October 2015

Birth Control: A Rational Approach

http://www.roperld.com/personal/InterdisciplinaryStudies.htm

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