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(Back to Unemployment and Political Parties)
Since the Franklin Roosevelt administration there have been 25 years with Democratic presidents and 31 with Republican presidents. I have studied the unemployment data for all of those administrations and have found the following:
The correlation between Republican administrations and increasing unemployment is high and the correlation between Democratic administrations and decreasing unemployment is high. However, one should allow for a time lag of unemployment relative to the tenure of an administration, as it takes a while for an administration to put its economic policies in place. Indeed, I found that the correlation between Republican administrations and increasing unemployment is highest for a lag of slightly more than one year.
The average yearly unemployment, allowing for a one-year time lag, was
The average yearly change in unemployment for the last fifty-six years, allowing for a one-year time lag, has been
There might be some interest in comparing the recent Clinton administration (1993-2000) with the current BushGW administration (2001-2003) and the previous Reagan/BushGHW (1981-92) administration.
Allowing for a one-year lag, the
The average yearly change in unemployment, allowing for a one-year lag, was
|The following graph shows the unemployment data and the presidential administrations for the last 56 years.|
|The following graph shows the correlation coefficient between Republican administrations and unemployment for the last 56 years.|
Some may argue that it makes a big difference which party controls the Congress as to whether a presidential administration can decrease unemployment. A quick study of the record for the last fifty-six years shows that Republican administrations did a better job of reducing unemployment when the Congress was controlled by Democrats, but it did not make much difference which party controlled the Congress with Democratic administrations.
I would welcome anyone to analyze the United States unemployment data with regard to the performance of presidential administrations for the last fifty-six years, if they think that the above is not correct, and inform me of any errors I might have made.
I leave it up to the reader to make any inferences from the analysis above about which party they should vote for in the upcoming presidential and congressional election.