Historian Allan J. Lichtman has developed a system for predicting presidential elections, which is explained in his book: Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President. (Also, see http://lionhrtpub.com/orms/orms-10-96/white-house.html)
| KEY 1 Incumbent-party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections |
| KEY 2 Nomination-contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. |
| KEY 3 Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. |
| KEY 4 Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. |
| KEY 5 Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. |
| KEY 6 Long-term economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms. |
| KEY 7 Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. |
| KEY 8 Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. |
| KEY 9 Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. |
| KEY 10 Foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. |
| KEY 11 Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. |
| KEY 12 Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. |
| KEY 13 Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. |
A prediction is made by answering True or False to each of the Keys and then assigning True=0 and False=1. If the um of all thirteen answers is greater than or equal to 6 the incumbent party will lose the popular vote in the presidential election under consideration, if the sum is less than or equal to 5 the incumbent party will win.
A week before the 2000 election I decided to try to use the Keys to predict that election. I and my wife, Jeanne Roper, both politically oriented, answered the keys to the best of our abilities and we widely disagreed on the prediction. So I contacted many of my e-mail contacts and asked them to answer the Keys. Sixteen, including me and my wife, responded.
I modified the possible answers to include "I am not sure" to count 0.5 in addition to the True and False answers.
Some of the Keys are factual and have only one possible correct answer; e.g., Key 1 is True for the 2000 Election (See the bottom part of http://clerkweb.house.gov/elections/1998/TABLE.HTM) After correcting the sixteen answers for the Keys for the factual Keys (1, 3, 6 & 8), the following result was obtained:
| Key: | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | Total |
| Rep 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Rep 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 3.5 |
| Rep 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Rep 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Rep 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Rep 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6.5 |
| Rep 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Rep 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Rep 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Rep 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Rep 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Rep 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Rep 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Rep 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Rep 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6.5 |
| Rep 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Average | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 5.7 |
| Std. Dev. | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
So we have a near tied popular vote prediction, with a standard deviation that could go either way.
After studying the Keys for some time I came to the conclusion that Key 3 Incumbency should be 0.5 for an incumbent Vice President as a candidate, especially in this modern time when a Vice President has more duties and power than in earlier times. Making the change the result is:
| Key: | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | Total |
| Rep 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.5 |
| Rep 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Rep 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.5 |
| Rep 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Rep 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Rep 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Rep 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Rep 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 6.5 |
| Rep 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Rep 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rep 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Rep 12 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Rep 13 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.5 |
| Rep 14 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Rep 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Rep 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.5 |
| Average | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 5.2 |
| Std. Dev. | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
So we have again a prediction of a near tied popular vote, but now with a leaning toward the incumbent party. If the actual popular vote holds at what it was on 11 November 2000, this prediction is correct. However, note that the standard deviation again would allow the incumbent party to lose the popular vote. It would have been interesting to have had a thousand such respondents to narrow down the standard error. Perhaps someone will do this for future elections.
Lichtman's book (Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President) gives a table of his Keys predictions of recent presidential elections and retroactive "predictions" of elections back to 1984. (Those elections were actually used to formulate the Keys.) The 1996 prediction is from http://lionhrtpub.com/orms/orms-10-96/white-house.html. The 2000 prediction is from above.
| Incumbent Wins and Losses, 1860-1992 | |||||||||||||||
| Incumbent victories: | President Elected | ||||||||||||||
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | Total | |
| 1864 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | Abraham Lincoln(R) vs George McClellan |
| 1868 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Ulysses Grant(R) vs Horatio Seymour |
| 1872 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Ulysses Grant(R) vs Horace Greeley (Died after election but before Electoral College met.) |
| 1880 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | James Garfield(R) vs Winfield Hancock |
| 1888* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | Benjamin Harrison(R) vs Grover Cleveland |
| 1900 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | William McKinley(R) vs William Bryan |
| 1904 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Theodore Roosevelt(R) vs Alton Parker |
| 1908 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | William Taft(R) vs William Bryan |
| 1916 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | Woodrow Wilson(D) Charles Hughes |
| 1924 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Calvin Coolidge(R) vs James Davis |
| 1928 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | Herbert Hoover(R) vs Alfred Smith |
| 1936 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Franklin Roosevelt(D) vs Alfred Landon |
| 1940 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Franklin Roosevelt(D) vs Wendell Willkie |
| 1944 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Franklin Roosevelt(D) vs Thomas Dewey |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | Harry Truman(D) vs Thomas Dewey |
| 1956 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Dwight Eisenhower(R) vs Adlai Stevenson |
| 1964 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | Lyndon Johnson(D) vs Barry Goldwater |
| 1972 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Richard Nixon(R) George McGovern |
| 1984 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Ronald Reagan(R) vs Walter Mondale |
| 1988 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | George Bush(R) vs Michael Dukakis |
| 1996 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | William Clinton(D) vs Robert Dole |
| 2000 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 5.2 | |
| Challenger victories: | |||||||||||||||
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | Total | |
| 1860 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Abraham Lincoln(R) vs Stephen Douglas |
| 1876* | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | Rutherford Hayes(R) vs Samuel Tilden |
| 1884 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | Grover Cleveland(D) vs James Blaine |
| 1892 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | Grover Cleveland(D) vs Benjamin Harrison |
| 1896 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | William McKinley(R) William Bryan |
| 1912 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | Woodrow Wilson(D) vs T. Roosevelt(P) vs W. Taft(R) |
| 1920 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | Warren Harding(R) vs James Cox |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | Franklin Roosevelt(D) vs Herbert Hoover |
| 1952 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | Dwight Eisenhower(D) vs Adlai Stevenson |
| 1960 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | John Kennedy(D) vs Richard Nixon |
| 1968 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | Richard Nixon(R) vs Hubert Humphrey |
| 1976 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | James Carter(D) vs Gerald Ford |
| 1980 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | Ronald Reagan(R) vs James Carter |
| 1992 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | William Clinton(D) vs George Bush |
| Tie Prediction: | |||||||||||||||
| 2000 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 5.2 | |
| *Electoral vote did not coincide with popular-vote results. | |||||||||||||||