Poverty and Political Parties
L. David Roper (E-mail: roperld@vt.edu)

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The poverty rate (number/1000) varies greatly among the states in the United States. (See table at end for 1997-8 rates.)

An interesting question to ask is: Is there any correlation between the poverty rate and the strength of the two political parties in the states?

I compared different state's poverty rate (PR) data for 1996 with the results of the 1996 presidential election for each state. (See table at end for votes in the 1996 election.) A correlation calculation yielded the following:

Correlation Rate
Democrat vote +0.010
Republican vote +0.110

That is, the Democratic votes for the states had a 1% positive correlation with increasing PR and the Republican votes had a 11% positive correlation. States with high poverty rate vote more Republican than Democratic and vice versa.

This is a plot of the poverty rate (PR) sorted by rank of the states compared to the Democratic votes and the Republican votes. (See table at end for the data.) Also shown are linear fits to the two votes. This shows visually the positive correlation of PR with the Republican vote and the almost zero correlation of PR with the Democratic vote. Note the exceptionally high rate for New Mexico (20.8).

What can one conclude from these results? Whatever factors cause the large disparity for poverty rates between the various states also cause those states to tend to vote Republican. I believe that the main factors are:

My Republican native state, Oklahoma (rate=13.9), ranked 35 of 50 and my Republican adopted state, Virginia (rate=10.8), ranked 22 of 50 for increasing poverty rate in 1997-8.

Data taken from: http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/poverty99/pv99state.html
U.S. Poverty Rate 1997-8 1996 election
State Poverty Rate Democrat Republican Rank
Maryland 7.8 54.3% 38.3% 1
Wisconsin 8.5 48.8% 38.5% 2
Colorado 8.7 44.4% 45.8% 3
New Jersey 8.9 53.7% 35.9% 4
Utah 8.9 33.3% 54.4% 5
Connecticut 9 52.8% 34.7% 6
Alaska 9.1 33.3% 50.8% 7
Indiana 9.1 41.6% 47.1% 8
Washington 9.1 49.8% 37.3% 9
Iowa 9.3 50.3% 39.9% 10
New Hampshire 9.4 49.6% 39.6% 11
Kansas 9.6 36.1% 54.3% 12
Vermont 9.6 53.4% 31.1% 13
Delaware 10 51.8% 36.6% 14
Minnesota 10 51.1% 35.0% 15
Maine 10.2 51.6% 30.8% 16
Massachusetts 10.4 61.5% 28.1% 17
Illinois 10.6 54.3% 36.8% 18
Michigan 10.6 51.7% 38.5% 19
Missouri 10.8 47.5% 41.2% 20
Nevada 10.8 43.9% 42.9% 21
Virginia 10.8 45.1% 47.1% 22
Nebraska 11.1 35.0% 53.7% 23
Ohio 11.1 47.4% 41.0% 24
Pennsylvania 11.2 49.2% 40.0% 25
Wyoming 12.1 36.8% 49.8% 26
Rhode Island 12.2 59.7% 26.8% 27
Hawaii 12.4 56.9% 31.6% 28
North Carolina 12.7 44.0% 48.7% 29
Oregon 13.3 47.2% 39.1% 30
South Carolina 13.4 44.0% 49.8% 31
Florida 13.7 48.0% 42.3% 32
South Dakota 13.7 43.0% 46.5% 33
Idaho 13.8 33.6% 52.2% 34
Oklahoma 13.9 40.4% 48.3% 35
Tennessee 13.9 48.0% 45.6% 36
Georgia 14 45.8% 47.0% 37
North Dakota 14.4 40.1% 46.9% 38
Kentucky 14.7 45.8% 44.9% 39
Alabama 15.1 43.2% 50.1% 40
Texas 15.9 43.8% 48.8% 41
California 16 51.1% 38.2% 42
Montana 16.1 41.3% 44.1% 43
New York 16.6 58.3% 30.0% 44
Arizona 16.9 46.5% 44.3% 45
Mississippi 17.1 44.1% 49.2% 46
West Virginia 17.1 51.5% 36.8% 47
Arkansas 17.2 53.7% 36.8% 48
Louisiana 17.7 52.0% 39.9% 49
New Mexico 20.8 49.2% 41.9% 50

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