Helium extraction rate for the world and Verhulst function fits to the data.
L. David Roper
http://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid/
20 March, 2010
Helium is used to cool superconducting magnets. The graph below shows the tin extraction data for the world and two Verhulst function fits to the data in order to extrapolate into the future.
Helium extraction rate for the world and Verhulst function fits to the data.
The red curve is a fit with total amount to be extracted of 7.5x106 tonnes and the blue curve is for a fit with twice that amount.
The blue curve is obtained by restricting the total extraction (41.7x106 tonnes) to the amount already extracted (about 750x103 tonnes) plus the estimated reserves base of about 41x106 tonnes. No estimate of the reserves is given by USGS, so it is assumed to be about 0.75*(reserves base) = 30.75x106 tonnes. The red curve is obtained by restricting the total extraction (31.5x106 tonnes) to the amount already extracted (about 750x103 tonnes) plus the estimated reserves base of about 30.75x106 tonnes.
It appears that average world helium extraction will peak somewhere between 2100 and 2125.
Taking an average extraction curve of the two fits, the crossover point at about year 2140 when the amount extracted is equal to the amount left to be extracted is shown here:
