World Fossil-Fuels Depletion

Fit of the Verhulst function to U.S. crude oil extraction. Note that the peak occurred 1975-8:

The total amount to be extracted is 251x10⁹ barrels, almost exactly the same as for the fit to the U.S. Oil Discoveries.

Fit of the Verhulst function to U.S. crude oil extraction and projection to 2100:

The red curve is for total eventual extraction of 280 x 10⁹ tons, which is the reserves given in http://www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html. (Click on Reserves below International Data at the bottom left.) The black curve is for twice that amount.

World Crude-Oil Extraction

World crude-oil discoveries ( http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html) and a Verhulst-function fit to the data.
The total amount of World crude oil to be discovered is slightly less than 2 x 10¹² (2 trillion) barrels.

World crude-oil extraction rate and a Verhulst-function fit to the data obtained by fitting the discoveries data and the extraction data together with a common value for the amount to discovered and extracted. That value searched to 1.965x10¹² barrels.

World crude-oil extraction per capita. The extrapolation into the future is obtain by using a fit to World population extrapolated into the future (http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/WorldPop.htm).

Comparison of world oil discoveries and extraction.

The amount under both curves is about 2x10¹² barrels.

This graph contains information that probably will have the greatest effect on those now living and born in the future. Crude Oil cannot be extracted if it has not been discovered! This graph shows very clearly why it is very unlikely that the final amount to be extracted will exceed 2x10¹² barrels. So far the amount extracted has exceeded 1x10¹² barrels, so we are more than halfway there!

Monthly world oil extraction.

The amount extracted per month has been nearly level for three years.

World crude-oil prices

Possibly a better way to project future crude-oil prices is to fit the product of the past prices and the past extraction rate, which yields a world total cost in dollars for crude oil for each year. Neglecting inflation (which could be accounted for by an inflation index as a function of time), it is reasonable to assume that there is a maximum total value, represented by dollars, that the world will assign to crude oil as it becomes depleted. That is, a hyperbolic-tangent function fit to the product might be a reasonable projection to the product. The following graph shows such a fit:

Using the projection of world crude-oil extraction into the future, and the fit in the graph above of the product of price times extraction rate, the projected price of crude oil is:

Another way to project future crude-oil prices is to fit the product of the past prices and the past extraction rate and divide by the population for each year, which yields a world cost in dollars per person for crude oil for each year. Neglecting inflation (which could be accounted for by an inflation index as a function of time), it is reasonable to assume that there is a maximum total value, represented by dollars, that the average person inthe world will assign to crude oil as it becomes depleted. That is, a hyperbolic-tangent function fit to the product/quotient might be a reasonable projection to the product. The following graph shows such a fit:

Using the projection of world crude-oil extraction into the future, the projected world population, and the fit in the graph above of the product of price times extraction rate divided by the population, the projected price of crude oil is the blue curve in the following graph.:

The red curve is the same curve as in the third graph above.

Saudi Arabia crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted is set at 368x10⁹ barrels, which is the reserves given by http://www.scaruffi.com/politics/oil.html plus the amount already extracted.

Saudi Arabia crude-oil extraction extrapolated to the year 2100:

Iran crude-oil extraction extrapolated to the year 2100:

Venezuela crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted is set at 133x10⁹ barrels, which is the reserves given by http://www.scaruffi.com/politics/oil.html plus the amount already extracted.

Venezuela crude-oil extraction extrapolated to the year 2100:

Mexico crude-oil extraction.

The total amount to be extracted searched to 60x10⁹ barrels, which is very close to the amount given by http://www.scaruffi.com/politics/oil.html plus the amount already extracted.

Mexico crude-oil extraction extrapolated to the year 2100:

Soviet-Union/Russia crude-oil extraction.

The total amount to be extracted searched 504x10⁹ barrels, which is more than the amount given by http://www.scaruffi.com/politics/oil.html plus the amount already extracted (430x10⁹ barrels)

Note the drastic drop when the Soviet Union collapsed.

Soviet-Union/Russia crude-oil extraction extrapolated to the year 2100:

World Natural-Gas Extraction

The blue curve corresponds to known resources. The red curve doubles the known resources.

World Natural-Gas Discoveries:

This and the curve below for world natural-gas extraction were fitted together with a common value for amount eventually discovered and extracted (7.8x10¹⁵ ft³).

Comparison of world natural-gas discoveries and extraction.

The amount under both curves is about 7.8 x 10¹⁵ ft³.

This graph contains information that probably will have the greatest effect on those now living and born in the future. Natural gas cannot be extracted if it has not been discovered! This graph shows very clearly why it is very unlikely that the final amount to be extracted will exceed 8x10¹⁵ ft³. So far the amount extracted is about 3x10¹⁵ ft³, so we are more than one-third of the way there!

The red curve is for total eventual extraction of 1.5 x 10¹² tons, The red curve is for twice that amount. http://www.eia.doe.gov/fuelcoal.html gives 1.00 x 10¹² tons as the world reserves. (Click on Reserves below International Data at the bottom left.)