L. David Roper
http://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid/
31 October 2007
Some propose that more nuclear power plants be built for generating electric power. This has been done on a large scale in France (about 75% of electric power in 2005), although the United States obtains more power from uranium than does France.
The electric power generated could be used to charge energy storage devices in vehicles for transportation.
The graph below shows the uranium extraction data for the World and a Verhulst function fit to the data in order to extrapolate into the future. The total amount to be eventually extracted used for the fit is 15,000x103 tonnes (1 tonne = 1000 kg), which is about 3,000x103 tonnes more than the known and estimated undiscovered uranium resources (6,260x103 tonnes) plus the amount already extracted (5,691x103 tonnes) (total of 11,951x103 tonnes).
However, it has been shown (Nuclear Power: The Energy Balance) convincingly that uranium ores of low uranium concentrations will not produce net energy. Using the ore reserves for only concentrations greater than 0.05% mass-%U3O8 and adding a little to be optimistic, the graph below shows a fit to the uranium extraction data for an eventual extraction amount of 7,500x103 tonnes.
Uranium extraction rate for the World and Verhulst function fits to the data. (http://www.globeuranium.com.au/index.php?id=22&PHPSESSID=bb901a92b43b2edca8f0667673e64b39)
The red curve is the best fit to the data; it has an eventual extraction amount of 3,967x103 tonnes.
Note that the two big pushes (1955-1965 in the United States and Western Europe and 1975-1990 in Eastern Europe) to extract uranium during the Cold War, most of which went into building huge amounts of nuclear weapons by the United States and the Soviet Union. There is a program of the United States and Russia, called the “Megatons to Megawatts Program”, for converting high-enriched uranium used in weapons into low-enriched uranium to be used for electric power.
The graph below shows the extrapolation of the fits to year 2300.
Uranium extraction rate for the World and Verhulst function fits to the data and their extrapolations into the future.
I expect that there will be a large peak in uranium extraction in the next few decades as crude oil and natural gas extraction decline, followed by a possible sharp dip after a major nuclear-reactor accident or terrorism involving a nuclear reactor, and then a rise again to then follow the declining curve of uranium depletion.
The four major extractors of uranium are Canada, Australia, Commonwealth of Independent States (11 states of the former Soviet Union) and the United States.
The recent rising demand for uranium is indicated by the recent fast rise in the price of uranium oxide as shown in the graph below. The price on 30 January 2006 was $37.50. Price per pound is expected to reach $50 per pound in the near future.
Spot prices per pound for U3O8. Note the huge Cold War prices peak.
One can see why the uranium price has been rising at a fast rate by comparing the extraction rate to the usage rate in the Western World, as shown in the graph below.
Western World uranium supply versus demand.
The environmental situation for use of uranium as an energy source is very problematical:
Benford relates the history and details of attempts to design warning systems for humans up to 10,000 years from now regarding underground storage sites for radioactive nuclear wastes. It is interesting that this time period is about the time to the first minimum of the next Major Ice Age. Perhaps humans will dig up the radioactive wastes to try to use them to keep warm or for religious rites. Read about how an event similar to the latter happened in Brazil: http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/GRI.htm .
For a more positive view of nuclear power, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power .
For a more negative view of nuclear power including a net energy analysis, see Nuclear Power: The Energy Balance.