World Fossil-Fuels Depletion

L. David Roper
http://www.roperld.com/personal/RoperLDavid.htm
23 August, 2017

Oil: Not Exactly Dead Dinosaurs

Excel spreadsheet listing some of the data used for the following analyses

Other related web pages:

Contents:

Using the Depletion Theory that I have previously developed, I show here fits to United States and World extraction of crude oil, natural gas and coal. The depletion equation used to fit the extraction data is the Verhulst function:

The Q parameter is the total amount eventually to be extracted. The n parameter is a measure of the asymmetry: symmetric is n=1, skewed to early times is n<1 and skewed to later times is n>1.

United States Crude-Oil extraction
These data came from http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table24.xls.

United States Crude-Oil Extraction

Current Crude-Oil-Futures Price

U.S. crude-oil discoveries ( http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html) and a Verhulst-function fit to the data.
The total amount of U.S. crude oil to be discovered is about 253x109 barrels.

Fit of the Verhulst function to U.S. crude oil extraction. Note that the peak occurred 1975-8. This is the best example of crude-oil depletion.:

The total amount to be extracted is 312 x 109 barrels.

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Fit of the Verhulst function to U.S. crude oil extraction and projection to 2100:

When natural resources peak they usually oscillate around the peak.

U.S. Crude-Oil Extraction with sinx/x oscillations on both sides of the peak:

The oscillation is mathematically represented by two sinx/x functions, one before the peak and one after the peak; they are added to the Verhulst function. An equally good fit can be obtained by using two Gaussian functions instead of sinx/x functions.

My reasoning for the oscillation is that, when starting to peak, great effort is made to keep the extraction increasing; after that fails and extraction starts to fall, great effort again is made to keep it from falling. Eventually that final great effort also fails.

Fit of the Verhulst function to U.S. crude oil offshore extraction and projection to year 2050:

The amount left to be extracted is optimistically assumed to be 7.55 x 109 barrels, larger than the proved reserves of 4.335 x 109 barrels. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill caused a drastic reduction in offshore extraction after 2010.

BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling

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Comparison of U.S. offshore crude-oil extraction to Alaska and total U.S, extraction:
Best fit to U.S. offshore crude-oil extraction of the total extraction:

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This shows the change in U.S. crude oil extraction since 1945. The biggest recent yearly decrease was -6.7% in 1989 during the BushGHW administration. The average yearly decrease was -3.1% for the BushGHW administration and -2.7% during the Clinton administration. Note that the yearly changes oscillate depending on many factors, but the general trend is downward. No administration should be blamed for most of these factors and no administration can change the fact that the U.S. is running out of economically feasible crude oil.

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Alaska Crude-Oil Extraction

Data are from: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPAK1&f=M http://www.tax.alaska.gov/programs/documentviewer/viewer.aspx?426

The extraction peak occurred in less than 2 decades after the big Prudhoe Bay discovery.

Possible Alaska ANWAR crude-oil extraction:

A high-value assumption has been made that the eventual total extraction will be 1010 barrels. Further assumptions are that the initial speed of extraction will be ~30% less than the Prudhoe-Bay speed and that the asymmetry will be the same as for Prudhoe-Bay extraction.

This is included because of claims that there will be future increases in crude-oil extraction in California. The sum (31.9 x 109 barrels) of the 2014 EIA estimate of reserves (~2.854 x 109 barrels) and the amount already extracted (~29.0 x 109 barrels) is smaller than the area under the curve (38.4 x 109 barrels). Thus, if the EIA reserves estimate is correct, there is no major future for crude-oil extraction in California.


This is for reserves slightly larger than the 2014 reserves of 1.558 x 10^9 barrels.
The future peak is assumed to be symmetric.


United States Natural-Gas Extraction

Current Natural-Gas-Futures Price

Fit of the Verhulst function to U.S. natural gas extraction.

The short large blip is shale gas. So, shale natural gas adds a short large blip to the natural-gas extraction for the United States. It could be reduced in size and stretched out over a larger time interval, but I doubt it will be. The U.S. will probably extract and use it as fast as possible.

See http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/NaturalGasUS.htm .
See http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/USGasBoom_Bust.htm

The jump just before 1950 is because the previous data did not include wet natural gas.

This is for reserves much larger than the 2014 reserves of 15.28 x 10^12 ft^3.

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United States Petroleum Consumption

These data came from http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_supply_monthly/current/txt/table_s02_a.txt. U.S. petroleum consumption since 1949. Note the sharp downward turn during the Carter administration (1977-1980); but then the increases started again by the end of Reagan's first term (1981-1988). Then consumption leveled off during the Bush administration (1989-1992) and then continued the upward trend during the Clinton administration (1993-2000). Note how the onset of Alaska extraction caused a temporary rise in U.S. extraction; but then, after a decade, began to decline. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is estimated to contain 7 x 109 bbl of oil. This is about one year's consumption, but it will probably be extracted over a decade or longer, which will be a negligible blip on these curves.

United States Crude-Oil Imports

The sum was ~5.5 x 10^9 barrels/year for the last decade.


Assumes total = 5.5 x 1^9 barrels/year into the future.

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United States Coal Extraction

Current U.S. Coal Spot Prices

Here is a fit with three Verhulst functions:

It appears that "peak coal" has arrived for the United States.

U.S. Coal energy/volume and a hyperbolic-tangent function fit to the data:

As seen below the final asymptote is somewhat above the energy content of lignite (14 MBtu/ST), as it should be. The initial asymptote is equivalent to mostly bituminous (20.5 MBtu/St), as it should be.

Putting the last two graphs together, the energy available from coal in the U.S. is

Although U. S. coal extraction peaks at ~2004-2012, U.S. coal energy peaks at ~2000-2004.

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The energy contents of the three different classes of coal are (1 MBtu/ST = 0.8598 MJ/kg):

Coal energy density:
MJ/kg
MBtu/ST
Anthracite
32.50

28.0

Bituminous
24.00
20.5
Lignite
16.50

14.0

Most of the coal mined in the U.S. is bituminous, with a little lignite. Anthracite extraction is almost negligible:

U.S. Coal Areas:

Central 
Appalachia
12,500 Btu/lb, 
1.2 SO2/lb
Northern 
Appalachia
13,000 Btu/lb, 
<3.0 SO2/lb
Illinois Basin
11,800 Btu/lb, 
5.0 SO2/lb
Powder 
River Basin 
8,800 Btu/lb, 
0.8 SO2/lb
Uinta Basin
11,700 Btu/lb,
0.8 SO2/lb

1 Btu = 1055.056 joules = 2.930711x10-4 kWh
1 lb = 0.45359237 kg
1 MJ/kg = 429.9226 Btu/lb

Here are relevant data for coal extraction in millions of tons per year for the United States:

State

Peak Coal Extraction

Peak Year

% drop to 2012

United States

1172

2008

13%

Wyoming

467.6

2008

14%

Pennsylvania

277.4

1918

80%

West Virginia

181.9

1997

34%

Kentucky

173.3

1990

48%

Illinois

89.3

1918

46%

Texas

55.8

1990

21%

Ohio

55.1

1969

49%

Virginia

46.4

1988

59%

The list is for the United States and seven states that have had peaks of more than 50-million tons per year and Virginia.

Virginia and West Virginia Coal Extraction
The red curve is the best fit to the data.

Note that the current long decline started in 1992 during the George H. W. Bush presidency.


West-Virginia coal extraction may extend into the far future; more likely it will continue the current decline.

The highest coal extraction in Virginia is in Buchanan county:

The next highest coal extraction in Virginia is in Wise county:l

Pennsylvania Coal Extraction

Kentucky Coal Extraction

Ohio Coal Extraction
It appears that another small peak has occurred at year ~2010.

Illinois Coal Extraction

Indiana Coal Extraction
The final peak is assumed to be symmetric.

The best fit (red curve) is essentially the same as using the reserves base to constrain a fit.

Alabama Coal Extraction

Tennessee Coal Extraction

Texas Coal Extraction

Oklahoma Coal Extraction

Colorado Coal Extraction

New Mexico Coal Extraction

Arizona Coal Extraction

Utah Coal Extraction

North Dakota Coal Extraction

Montana Coal Extraction

Wyoming Coal Extraction

Coal Prices Prediction

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World Crude-Oil Extraction

World crude-oil discoveries ( http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html) and a Verhulst-function fit to the data.
The total amount of World crude oil to be discovered is slightly less than 2 x 1012 (2 trillion) barrels.


Current discoveries of 10^9 barrels are normal.

World crude-oil extraction rate and a Verhulst-functions fit to the data obtained by restricting the amount to be extracted in accord with the 2013 estimated reserves value of ~1.656 x 1012 (trillion) barrels.

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World crude-oil extraction per capita. The extrapolation into the future is obtain by using a fit to World population extrapolated into the future (http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/WorldPop.htm).

Comparison of world oil discoveries and extraction.

The amount under both curves is about 2x1012 barrels.

This graph contains information that probably will have the greatest effect on those now living and born in the future. Crude Oil cannot be extracted if it has not been discovered! This graph shows very clearly why it is very unlikely that the final amount to be extracted will exceed 2x1012 barrels. So far the amount extracted has exceeded 1x1012 barrels, so we are more than halfway there!

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Monthly world oil extraction.

The amount extracted per month has been nearly level for three years.

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World crude-oil prices

Current Crude-Oil-Futures Price

It appears that the average annual crude-oil price may be leveling off just below ($100/barrel):

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Gasoline Prices in the United States

This result can be used to predict the future price of gasoline in the United States for 1 January; it should be approximately linear in the price per barrel of crude oil. Here are those two prices:

A hyperbolic-tangent fit of the U.S. regular gasoline price yields:

Correlations of Energy-Minerals Prices and Consumer Energy Prices

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Saudi Arabia crude-oil extraction

This is a four-Verhulst fit to the Saudi Arabia crude-oil extraction data with the set value of Q=350x109 barrels, which is larger than the reported reserves (~268x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~56.5x109 barrels) in 2014. The fit is made with the assumption that the current rise will continue until the peak at ~2020 year and that the last peak will be symmetrical.


There could be several future peaks instead of only one big one.

The blue curve would be the case if crude-oil extraction were fixed at 3.63x109 barrels per year until the 208x109 barrels of current reserves ran out at about year 2072. The actual case will probably be some curve in between the red and blue curve, with perhaps more than one peak in the future.

It is easy to see why Saudi Arabia is installing renewable energy at a rapid pace.

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Kuwait crude-oil extraction

This is a two-Verhulst fit to the Kuwait crude-oil extraction data. The total amount to be extracted was set at 155x109 barrels, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves (~104x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (about ~46.7x109 barrels). The last peak is assumed to be symmetrical.


There could be several future peaks instead of only one big one.

The blue curve would be the case if crude-oil extraction were fixed at 0.935x109 barrels per year until the 104x109 barrels of current reserves ran out at about year 2134.

United Arab Emirates crude-oil extraction

This is a 3-Verhulst fit to the UAE crude-oil extraction data. The total amount to be extracted was set at Q=140x109 barrels, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves (~97.8x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~33.5x109 barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

The blue curve would be the case if crude-oil extraction were fixed at 1.0x109 barrels per year until the 98x109 barrels of current reserves ran out at about year 2130.

Seven emirates comprise UAE:  Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras al-Khaimah, Sharjah, and Umm al-Quwain.

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Oman crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 20x109 barrels for a 3-Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~5.5x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~10.7x109 barrels barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

Qatar crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 40x109 barrels for a Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~25x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~12.6x109 barrels barrels).The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

Iran crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted is set at 230x109 barrels, which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves (~157x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~68x109 barrels).


There could be several future peaks instead of only one big one.

The 2013 low was due to economic sanctions on Iran.

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Iraq crude-oil extraction

The 4-Verhulsts fit has a total amount to be extracted set to Q=180x109 barrels, which is slightly more than the 2014 estimated reserves (~140x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~36.7x109 barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.


There could be several future peaks instead of only one big one.

Due to the animosity among three ethnic groups in Iraq, it is likely that its future crude-oil extraction will oscillate around its depletion curve.

Nigeria crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 70x109 barrels for a 2-Verhulst fit, which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (37x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~33x109 barrels). The final peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Angola crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 25x109 barrels for a 2-Verhulst fit, which is slightly less than the 2014 reported reserves amount (9.1x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~11.6x109 barrels).

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Equatorial Guinea crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 2.87x109 barrels for a Verhulst fit which is smaller than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~1.1x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.74x109 barrels).

The years before 1995 were not used in making the fit.

Algeria crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 36.3x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is slightly smaller than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~12.2x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~26.5x109 barrels).

/Tunisia crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 2.16x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.425x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.55x109 barrels).

/

Libya crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 85x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~48.5x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~30.3x109 barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.


The fit curve is what could have occurred if the nation had not fallen into violence.

The last few years, whose low values were due to the civil war, were not used in making the fit.

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Sudan crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 4x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is about the same as the 2013 reported reserves amount (~1.25x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.84x109 barrels).

Years before 2000 and the last 4 years were not used in making the fit.

Turkey crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set to 1.5x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.2948x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.196x109 barrels). The final peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Egypt crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 14.8x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~4.4x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~10.8x109 barrels).

Gabon crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 6x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~2x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~4.07x109 barrels).

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Congo (Brazzaville) crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 3.08x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is somewhat smaller than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~1.6x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.7x109 barrels).

Brunei crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 3.69x109 barrels for the 2-Verhulst fit, which is considerably smaller than the 2013 reported reserves amount (~1.1x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~3.3x109 barrels.

Cameroon crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 2.37x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.2x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.41x109 barrels).

Chad crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set to 3x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~1.5x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~0.94x109 barrels). The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.


The earliest value was not used in the fit.

Ghana crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set to 1x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.66x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~0.172x109 barrels). The final peak was assumed to be symmetrical.


The fit used only the last 4 years' data.

Uganda crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set to 2.5x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~2.5x109 barrels). The peak was assumed to be symmetrical.


Uganda is supposed to start extracting crude oil in 2016; so this is an estimate of what the extraction might be.

South Africa crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 3.91x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.015x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.86x109 barrels).

India crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set to 15x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~5.6x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~8.3x109 barrels). The final peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Syria crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 8x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~2.5x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~5.2x109 barrels).

The last three years' values, due to the civil war, were not used in making the fit.

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Yemen crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 7x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is slightly larger tan the 2014 reported reserves amount (~3x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~3x109 barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

Azerbaijan crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 17.8x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is slightly less than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~7x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~13.8x109 barrels).

Kazakhstan crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 40x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~30x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~9.9x109 barrels). The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

 

Uzbekistan crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 2x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.594x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~0.641x109 barrels). The future peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

Turkmenistan crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 5x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is much larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.6x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.04x109 barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

It would be helpful to have extraction data before 1980.

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Malaysia crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 20.5x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~4x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~12.8x109 barrels).

Vietnam crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set to 10x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~4.4x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.6x109 barrels). The future peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

Thailand crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set to 2x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.4488x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.32x109 barrels). The peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Australia crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 10.3x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~1.4x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~8.0x109 barrels).

Venezuela crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 375x109 barrels for the single-Verhulst fit, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~298x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~67x109 barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

The future peak is mostly heavy oil.

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Peru crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 3.97x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.6329x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.47x109 barrels).

Trinidad & Tobago crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 3.2x109 barrels for the 3-Verhulst fit which is slightly smaller than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.73x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.8x109 barrels).

Mexico crude-oil extraction.

For the Verhulst fit the total amount to be extracted searched to 59x109 barrels which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~10x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~38.1x109 barrels).

References:

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Brazil crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set to 35x109 barrels which is slightly greater than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~13.2x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~14.7x109 barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

The reserves used in this calculation was posted by the U.S. Energy Information Agency in 2013. Obviously, it does not include the recent off-shore discoveries called Pre-sal, with estimates up to 100x109 barrels.

The best article I found about Pre-sal is :http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13348824. I think that it is very uncertain as to how much oil can actually be recovered from Pre-sal. The Economist article mentions many problems with extracting oil from Pre-sal.

Countries almost always greatly exaggerate oil discoveries. 50x109 barrels or more would be an amazing discovery. None that large have been discovered for over 40 years. I don't believe the numbers given by Petrobras for the Pre-sal discovery.

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Colombia crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set at 10x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~2.4x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~7.1x109 barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetric.

Argentina crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 16.5x109 barrels for the 3-Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~2.8x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~11.0x109 barrels).

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Ecuador crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted was set to 15x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~8.24x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~5.5x1109 barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

Indonesia crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 29.2x109 barrels for the 2-Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~3.59x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~22.8x109 barrels).

Soviet-Union/Russia crude-oil extraction.

The total amount to be extracted was set to 260x109 barrels which is about the same as the 2014 reserves estimate of ~80x109 barrels plus the amount already extracted (~173x109 barrels).


Note the drastic drop when the Soviet Union collapsed ~1990 .

Of course, the first peak is for the entire Soviet Union and the second peak is for Russia alone.

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China crude-oil extraction

The red-curve Verhulst fit was set at Q=75x109 barrels, which is slightly more than 2015 reserves of 24.6x109 barrels and ~46.7.3x109 barrels already extracted. However, a better fit was obtained with a reserves value of 66.5 x109 barrels, the blue curve.


Both fits assume that the peak is symmetrical.

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Romania crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted searched to 6.9x109 barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.6x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~5.8x109 barrels)..

United Kingdom crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted for a 2-Verhulst fit searched to Q=30.3x109 barrels, which is slightly more than the reported reserves amount (2.98x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~26.1x109 barrels)

Denmark crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit was set to Q=4x109 barrels, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.8051x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.54x109 barrels). The future peak is assumed to be symmetrical.

Germany crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit was set to to Q=2x109 barrels, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.2326x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.3x109 barrels). The initial and final peaks were assumed to be symmetrical.

France crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit searched to Q=1.3x109 barrels, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.08957x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.2x109 barrels).

Italy crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit was set to Q=2.5x109 barrels, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.5605x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.1x109 barrels). The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Spain crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit was set to 0.4x109 barrels, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.15x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~0.21x109 barrels). The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.


The earliest three data were not used in the fit.

Netherlands crude-oil extraction

The total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit was set to Q=1x109 barrels, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.3026x109 barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~0.41x109 barrels).

Canada crude-oil extraction

The 2014 reserves value is ~173x109 barrels. This fit uses a value slightly larger than that:


It is assumed that Canada oil sands are maximally extracted, which would be disastrous for global warming.


The recent fast rise and big future peak is due to extraction of crude oil from oil sands. The fit assumes a symmetric future peak.

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Norway crude-oil extraction

The 2014 reserves reported for Norway (5.825x109 barrels) is about the same as the set Q value (32x109 barrels) minus the amount already extracted (~25.6x109 barrels).

Nations with extraction maximum >= 10^9 barrels/year


It is assumed that Canada oil sands are maximally extracted, which would be disastrous for global warming.

World Natural-Gas Extraction

Current Natural-Gas-Futures Price

World Natural-Gas Discoveries

This and the curve below for world natural-gas extraction were fitted together with a common value for amount eventually discovered and extracted (7.8x1015 ft3).

Comparison of world natural-gas discoveries and extraction.

This does not include shale gas. The amount under both curves is about 7.8 x 1015 ft3.

This graph contains information that probably will have the greatest effect on those now living and born in the future. Natural gas cannot be extracted if it has not been discovered! This graph shows very clearly why it is very unlikely that the final amount to be extracted will exceed 8x1015 ft3. So far the amount extracted is about 3x1015 ft3, so we are more than one-third of the way there!

The amount to be eventually extracted was set to 10.5x1015 ft3, which is slightly larger than the sum of the 2012 reserves (~6.845x1015 ft3) and the amount already extracted (~3.5x1015 ft3)

This does not include uncertain shale gas; see below.

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Adding in uncertain shale gas:

The short large blip is an estimate of shale gas extraction . So, shale natural gas may add a short large blip to the natural-gas extraction for the World. It could be reduced in size and stretched out over a larger time interval, but I doubt it will be. The world will probably extract and use it as fast as possible.

Canada Natural-Gas Extraction

The area under the curve is consistent with the ~72x1012 ft3 reserves estimate for 2015.

Trinidad and Tabago Natural-Gas Extraction

The area under the curve is consistent with the ~12x1012 ft3 reserves estimate for 2015.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Mexico Natural-Gas Extraction

The area under the curve is consistent with the ~17.1x1012 ft3 reserves estimate for 2015.

Brazil Natural-Gas Extraction

The area under the curve is consistent with the ~13.7x1012 ft3 reserves estimate for 2013.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Argentina Natural-Gas Extraction

The area under the curve is consistent with the ~13.377x1012 ft3 reserves estimate for 2013.

Peru Natural-Gas Extraction

The area under the curve is consistent with the ~15.376x1012 ft3 reserves estimate for 2013.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Australia Natural-Gas Extraction

The area under the curve is consistent with the ~30x1012 ft3 reserves estimate for 2015.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Venezuela Natural-Gas Extraction


The fit used an optimistic2015 reserves value of 197x1012 ft3 .
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Bolivia Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit used an optimistic2015 reserves value of 9.9x1012 ft3 .
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Colombia Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit used an optimistic2015 reserves value of 6.4x1012 ft3 .
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

China Natural-Gas Extraction
l
The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value of ~164x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Russia Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data (1, 2) uses the 2015 reserves value ~1688x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

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Ukraine Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2013 reserves value ~38.987x1012 ft3.

A guess was made as to the natural-gas extraction in the Ukraine state before it left the Soviet Union. Both the first and last peak were assumed to be symmetrical.

Iran Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~1201x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Qatar Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~872x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Yemen Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2013 reserves value ~1898x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Saudi Arabia Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~294x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

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Kuwait Natural-Gas Extraction


The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~64x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

UAE Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~215x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

UK Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~8.5x1012 ft3.

Norway Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~72x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Netherlands Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~32x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Germany Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2013 reserves value ~4.097x1012 ft3.

Italy Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~6.4x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical. .

Romania Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2013 reserves value ~3.726x1012 ft3.V.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.
.

Indonesia Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 201.53 reserves value ~103x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.
.

Vietnam Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~25x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Oman Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~25x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Bahrain Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2013 reserves value ~3.25x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Nigeria Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~180x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Angola Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~9.7x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Algeria Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2013 reserves value ~159x1012 ft3.

Libya Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~53x1012 ft3.
The low recent years were not used in the fit.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Mozambique Natural-Gas Extraction


The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~100x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Thailand Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~8.4x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Malaysia Natural-Gas Extraction


The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2013 reserves value ~83x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Brunei Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~14x1012 ft3.

A guess was made as to the peak before the given data. Both the first and last peak were assumed to be symmetrical.

Egypt Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~77x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

India Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data searches to slightly less than the 2015 reserves value ~50x1012 ft3.

Pakistan Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2013 reserves value ~26.648x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Bangladesh Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2013 reserves value ~9.344x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Uzbekistan Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~65x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Kazakhistan Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~85x1012 ft3.
The future peaks were assumed to be symmetrical.

Azerbaijan Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2013 reserves value ~35x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Turkmenistan Natural-Gas Extraction

The fit to the data uses the 2015 reserves value ~265x1012 ft3.
The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Iraq Natural-Gas Extraction


The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2015 reserves value ~112x1012 ft3.
A possible future peak in natural-gas extraction for Iraq was assumed to be symmetrical.

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World Coal Extraction


The final peak is assumed to be symmetric.

This Verhulst fit was made to extraction using the reserves estimate (948 x 109 short tons) from the USA EIA. There are some indications that the estimated reserves value is too high; if that is so, the peak will occur sooner than 2040.

Canada Coal Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2011reserves value ~72.6x109 tons.

China Coal Extraction

The 18 Nov 2010 issue of Nature (468, pp.367-369) gives two different possible values for coal reserves in China: 187 x 109 or 115 x 109 short tons. (The 2008 EIA estimate of reserves is 126.215 x 109 short tons.) The following shows fits of the Verhulst function to the China coal extraction data for those two reserves values.


The final peak is assumed to be symmetric.
The lower curve is the better fit to the data.

It either case coal extraction in China will peak around year 2020.

Carbon capture in China:

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Mongolia Coal Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2011reserves value ~2.778x109 tons.

India Coal Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2008 reserves value ~66.8x109 tons.

Indonesia Coal Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2008 reserves value ~6.095x109 tons.

South Africa Coal Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2011reserves value ~33.2413x109 tons.

United Kingdom Coal Extraction

The UK is a good example of coal depletion:

The data are taken from:

Germany Coal Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2008 reserves value ~44.863x109 tons.

Poland Coal Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2011reserves value ~6.293x109 tons.

Greece Coal Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2011reserves value ~3.329x109 tons.

Turkey Coal Extraction

The fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2011reserves value ~9.592x109 tons.

Russia Coal Extraction

The final peak is assumed to be symmetric.
This fit is done using the EIA estimated reserves of 173.074 x 109 short tons.

The data are taken from:

Australia Coal Extraction

The final peak is assumed to be symmetric.
This fit is done using the EIA estimated reserves of 84.217 x 109 short tons
.

When the amount to be extracted eventually is allowed to vary the following fit is obtained:


The final peak is assumed to be symmetric.
The total amount to be extracted eventually is 32.294 x 109 short tons.

This is the best fit to the extraction data. When the amount extracted is set equal to the amount already extracted (~ 15.17 x 109 short tons) plus the EIA 2008 reserves estimate (84.217 lx 109 short tons), the fit to the data searches to 32.294 x 109 short tons.

The data are taken from:

Reference: http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2210847/australia_facing_slump_as_china_goes_green.html

Major Coal-Extracting Nations

Excel spreadsheet listing some of the data used in the analyses above

Coal Prices Prediction

Coal Education

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L. David Roper interdisciplinary studies